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Written by Hassnain Moawia • March 22, 2021 • 10:47 am • Current Affairs , International Relations , Pakistan , Published Content , Research Papers

Hybrid Warfare and its Implications for Pakistan’s National Security Strategy

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Mr Hassnain Moawia has an undergraduate degree in law from Bahauddin Zakariya University (BZU), an MSc in Information Technology, and a Master's in International Relations from Government College University Faisalabad (GCUF). He is currently pursuing an MS in Security and Strategic Studies.

Introduction

This paper will study the impact of hybrid warfare, an established war strategy, on the national security of Pakistan. Hybrid warfare is considered the most significant strategic discourse in today’s contemporary world. It is said to be an old concept but accompanied by new technologies. Its roots lie in history, but its nature has changed due to the advancements in information technology and the involvement of non-state actors in strategic warfare . 1

Hybrid warfare is not permanent in nature but the conflict of changing behaviors and characteristics. It uses conventional military force through the use of irregular and cyber warfare . 2 Advancements in technological warfare tactics come up with a design that makes it rather difficult for a country to analyze the situation.

Hybrid warfare impacts all state domains whether it be social, political, economic, informational, military, and diplomatic. Hybrid war, in its broadest sense, includes surgical operations, false flag operations along with cyberwar, media war, social media war, and misinformation and disinformation.

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The wars in Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan are all part of hybrid warfare due to the significant role of media through misinformation, disinformation, propaganda, and actual operations. Since the war is about weakening state ownership, the entire land is considered the battlefield due to its broader spectrum of propaganda and uncertainty.

The target areas in this warfare include the theatre command, control, communications, and intelligence targets, sovereignty, territorial integrity, cultural identity, ideological and ethnic cohesion, and the economy.

Hybrid Warfare Against Pakistan

Pakistan has faced serious threats from hybrid warfare due to its unique geo-strategic location. Pakistan is a nuclear state and so conventional warfare against Pakistan is unlikely. Therefore, a wave of indirect warfare has been imposed on Pakistan to undermine and destabilize the peace, prosperity, and stability of the country. Doval Doctrine of 2014 is the evidential fact that introduces the Indian defensive-offense policy towards Pakistan. 3

The recent attack on the Pakistan Stock Exchange by the involvement of some state and non-state actors is a direct attack on the economic setup, and these non-state actors are trained armed terrorists of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) that are funded by India and are responsible to create unrest in Balochistan. 4 Moreover, lobbying in FATF to get Pakistan black-listed clearly identifies India’s political and military leadership goals and objectives towards Pakistan; an indirect war strategy against Pakistan on the international stage to seize its assets and economy. 5

A report released by the US Department of Treasury’s FinCEN claimed that India had been involved in money laundering and terrorism funding through state-owned banks. 6 It was reported that the money has been transferred to anti-Pakistan elements throughout the world to support propaganda against Pakistan.

Even social media has gained a realistic significance in hybrid warfare to propagate information warfare. EU Disinfo lab’s report published on 9 December, 2020 discussed and highlighted the secret massive operations against Pakistan. 7

Pakistan’s military leadership has firmly stressed the need to safeguard the national interests in the ongoing hybrid warfare against Pakistan. 8 Similarly, the Pakistan Foreign Office has also warned about the enforcement of influential hybrid warfare against Pakistan. 9 The Government has taken many supportive initiatives in collaboration with Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) to create awareness among the general public about fake international propaganda warfare. 10

Security Aspect

A study conducted in 2018 on the significance of non-conventional warfare threats and means concluded that Pakistan’s military was only trained for conventional warfare. Since then, Pakistan has adopted non-conventional warfare tactics of psychological warfare, cyber warfare, cultural warfare, economic warfare, information warfare, the weaponization of military assets. 11

Pakistan has also taken the irregular domain of cyberspace into accordance to establish a threat-free national policy against hybrid warfare. 12 Hybrid warfare is the war of narrative and perception management. Pakistan has covered up to a major extent the internal fault lines by establishing a strong network of media awareness campaigns about propaganda warfare and Internal Security that discourage the foreign actors to engage in violence inside Pakistan. 13

In hybrid warfare, the most important tool is the art of navigating the enemy’s infrastructural lines of communication and fault lines in order to exploit or influence the operations. The wide scope of ethnic conflicts, socio-economic concerns, religious radicalizations, and political instability has increased the complexity of the hybrid warfare scenario in the 21 st century. These domains are directly linked to the national security of any state. 14

Hybrid war due to its multidimensional nature and sensitivity is the core object of today’s military operational tactics. A study has been conducted on information warfare and its role in hybrid warfare. The study concludes that with the advancement in Information and communication technology, information has taken the shape of an important component of national security principles. 15

Today’s world is globalized due to its dependency on the internet and so increases the risk of a cyber attack. Pakistan, being a nuclear state, is very careful in dealing with the cyber threats to its nuclear and financial infrastructure. Consequently, Pakistan has developed laws and bodies to deal with such threats, but there has been a lack of concrete steps. 16

To deter hybrid warfare, an effective national security strategy and policy formulation in collaboration with both civilian and military leadership is required. A strong unity between the nation and state narrative is very much compulsory because it’s the attack on the war of fake narratives and perception approach.

1 Hybrid war: Old concept, new techniques. (n.d.). Home, Above Feeds, Announcement | Small Wars Journal.

2 Ball, J. (2019, June 10). What is hybrid warfare? non-linear combat in the 21st century. Global Security Review.

3 Noorani, A. (2018, March 24). A hawkish doctrine. DAWN.COM.

4 Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com). (n.d.). Pakistan’s Imran Khan blames India for stock exchange attack. DW.COM.

5 India lobbying hard to get Pak Black-listed at FATF, our economy will be destroyed if this happens: Imran Khan. (2020, August 28). Latest News India: Breaking News Headlines Today, Business, Cricket, Videos, Photos.

6 India caught in dirty money games. (2020, September 27). The Express Tribune.

7 Indian chronicles: Deep dive into a 15-year operation targeting the EU and UN to serve Indian interests. (2020, December 9). EU DisinfoLab.

8 ‘Pakistan’s vital interests must be safeguarded in hybrid warfare against anti-state elements’. (2020, September 9). The News International: Latest News Breaking, Pakistan News.

9 India planning to impose hybrid war: FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi. (2020, January 2).

10 The News International: Latest News Breaking, Pakistan News.PTA confronts Twitter over fake news and anti-Pakistan propaganda. (2020, October 23). TechJuice.

11 Tahir, A., & Ejaz, K. Pakistan and Fourth Generation Warfare, http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/politicsAndInternational/PDF/4_v4_1_2018.pdf

12 Khan, M. I. A. CYBER-WARFARE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN, https://web.archive.org/web/20210308110444/https://ndu.edu.pk/ndu-journal/pub/06-Cyber-Warfare.pdf

13 Hassan, H. (2019). Pakistan’s Susceptibility to 5th Generation Hybrid Warfare due to its Prevailing Fault Lines: A Comparative Analysis with Yugoslavia. NUST Journal of International Peace and Stability

14 Ajmal Abbasi, (n.d.). Retrieved from https://ipripak.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Article-1-IPRI- Journal-XX-II.pdf

15 Khan, K. (2012). Understanding information warfare and its relevance to Pakistan. Strategic Studies, 32, 138-159.

16 Syed, R., Khaver, A. A., & Yasin, M. (2019). Cyber Security: Where Does Pakistan Stand?

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Hybrid Warfare Threats for Pakistan: Security Dynamics and the Way Forward

  • July 16, 2021 |

Sajad Ahmad ,

  • Image Credit: The Kootneeti

Hybrid Warfare Threats for Pakistan: Security Dynamics and the Way Forward

In contemporary times, hybrid warfare threats are perceived as lethal as nuclear weapons and sophisticated missile technology. It is not wrong to say that hybrid warfare poses direct threats to states, thereby provoking disruption and destruction. With the changing nature of warfare and emerging technologies, countries have been increasingly engaged in the quest for state-of-the-art strategies and tactics against adversary states. However, in South Asia specifically, India has intensified its hybrid warfare campaign against Pakistan in recent times. The last couple of months witnessed Indian-backed terror attacks , information weaponization campaigns, and BJP troll farms disseminate well-orchestrated propaganda against Pakistan to disturb the countrys peace and besmirch its image within and abroad.

Unlike major wars that are fought on battlefields and where the contested parties can easily be classified as victors or losers, wars now have transformed into a multi-dimensional domain and are waged via diverse means. Hybrid warfare refers to the synchronised use of multiple instruments of power tailored to specific vulnerabilities across the full spectrum of societal functions to achieve synergistic effects. The term was first coined in 2006 by Frank G. Hoffman, a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Marine Corps, who took the term from Robert G Walkers thesis pertinent to low-intensity operations conducted by the US Marine forces. Like the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, which is considered to be one of the prominent examples of hybrid warfare in the past.

Similarly, the case of India against Pakistan is well-thought-out. Its hybrid threats to Pakistan are considerable, to say the least. Owing to credible nuclear deterrence and Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), India does not want to indulge in a full-scale or a limited war with Pakistan directly. Hence it rather chooses to use other fluid means to destabilise and demoralise Pakistan. New Delhi officially introduced Doval Doctrine (Offensive-Defensive Doctrine) in 2014 in this regard. At present, the purpose clearly seems to inflict damage on Pakistan through various clandestine measures like stocking terrorism or proxies, cyber-attacks and subversion, information operations (using fake news campaigns, policy and news articles as a means of propaganda and manipulation), and even economic coercion.

Likewise, India practices alternative means of warfare to undermine Pakistans economic, political, and social assets through covert actions. Decades earlier, during the 1971 war, India categorically propped up Mukti Bahini to enable the dismantling of Pakistan. The Kalbhushan Jadhav episode in March 2016, and the Indian collusion amid the Army Public School (APS), Peshawar attack in 2014 are supplemental instances of Indias malevolent attempts against Pakistan.

India has been supporting proxies or terror outfits across Pakistan. New Delhis assistance to some Baloch ethno-nationalist militant groups like Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Baloch Republican Army (BRA) has explicitly been admitted by some Indian newspapers.

These illicit activities can be evident from the records released by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Investigation Network (FinCEN) in September 2020. The records evince Indias probable involvement in financial assistance to terrorism.

As claimed by international organisations and Pakistan, India also promulgates extremism by propagating anti-state and anti-military narratives, thereby radicalising the masses. These illicit activities can be evident from the records released by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) in September 2020. The records evince Indias probable involvement in financial assistance to terrorism.

Hence, such sponsored terror attacks that took thousands of innocents lives have grave consequences for victims’ families, friends and relatives. The unbearable losses make them infuriated and the situation breeds hate. Today, anti-state sentiments and hatred have been instigated amongst the victims families and the general masses who either accuse their own state for supporting proxies or reproach the government for not halting such dreadful activities. This is how hate is being inculcated inside some Baloch, Pashtuns, and Sindhis against the armed forces and the state.

In a similar vein, information has been weaponised by the Indian government to mislead and provoke the Pakistani populace in several ways. Indias untrue and fallacious information attempts to discredit and calumniate Pakistan was unearthed by the Eu Disinfo Lab report titled Indian Chronicles: Deep dive into a 15 years operations targeting the EU and the UN to serve Indian interest. The report explicitly stated that India is operating one of the largest fake media networks, with over 750 fake media outlets, disseminating false news to serve Indian interests. This network clearly aimed at targeting Pakistani interests in the EU and the UN.

Furthermore, most recently, a freelance Indian journalist Aveek Sen also uncovered the connivance between the former Indian military Intelligence (MI) officer Colonel Dibya Satpathy, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) troll farms, machinating information operations against Pakistan.

Similarly, synchronised state-sponsored cyberattacks several times hacked Pakistan-based websites, pertinent to federal and provincial government institutions. In August 2020, over 25 government departments websites were defaced by Indian-sponsored hackers.

In the coming days, the hybrid security threats to Pakistan may increase. It is imperative to mention that the US troops pull out from Afghanistan could embolden the Afghan Taliban and intensify instability in its neighbourhood. Hence, the influence of the Afghan Taliban in the areas adjacent to Afghanistan e.g. erstwhile FATA could increase, which may boost probabilities of strong connection with the Pakistani Taliban. The Indian Intelligence agencies could take benefit of this development to exacerbate Pakistans security and economic problems.

Experts believe the uncertainty in Afghanistan has provided TTP with a window of opportunity to attack Pakistan. Therefore, it could spell doom for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects also.

Additionally, the Pakistan Air forces (PAF) new airbase that is to be set up in Balochistan may invite Indian intelligence attacks as the Indian backing of the ethno-nationalist militants in Balochistan has not been eliminated yet. Pakistan should chalk out a strategy of prepare, deter, and defend accordingly.

The government of Pakistan should win the hearts and minds of those who live in backward and conflict-torn zones like FATA and Balochistan, providing them basic facilities and human rights for better livelihoods, so, these crisis-affected people would not go for illegitimate means to be in contradiction with the states writ. If the government does not resolutely uplift the socio-economic conditions of those areas, New Delhis slight exertions may grab peoples hearts and minds, and pave the way for psychological operations (PSYOPs) against Pakistan. Islamabad should take appropriate steps that strengthen democracy and the economy, which will be the most efficient way of building resilience against hybrid threats.

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Sajad Ahmad

Sajjad Ahmad is working as a Communications Assistant at CSCR.

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HYBRID WARFARE – CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

  • Dr. Tughral Yamin

In order to achieve political aims; the traditional means of kinetic warfare have always been supplemented by aggressive diplomacy, economic coercion, intelligence gathering, propaganda and proxy wars. A combination of all these tools is essential for a nation to achieve its political goals set out to win a war. All through the ages, technology has played a significant role in enhancing the capacity and capability of nations to win wars. The tools of modern warfare based on cyber and information technology has transformed the nature of warfare. Social media in particular is being used subtly as well as aggressively to shape public opinion and weaken the morale of the nation. The geographical dimensions of the battlefield have been eliminated. War is now waged in the minds of not only the opposing commanders but also in the minds of the nation. The dictum that strategy is the dialectic of opposing will is truer now than ever before. Wars can now be won without firing a single bullet. This changed nature of warfare needs to be understood in its entirety. While contingency plans exist in military headquarters to counter a physical invasion, there is little by way of collectively responding to the threats launched from various technical platforms. This paper is an attempt to look into the transformation of war fighting and suggests a few policy options for Pakistan to take up the challenges of hybrid warfare and keep the national will and morale intact during the worst of times.

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  • Dr. Tughral Yamin, Future Wars and Change in National Policy , Strategic Thought: Vol. 3 (2021): Strategic Thought-2021

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HYBRID WARFARE: EMERGING CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN

  • Hassan Jalil Shah School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST
  • Muhammad Ehsan National Defence University

Hybrid Warfare is gaining currency and posing new challenges to military thinkers and practitioners. The changes by the technological revolution, information and psychological operations, digitisation of the battlefield, and modernization in conventional warfare have ceased to be the standalone option for applying force. These changes envisage the application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP), projected along a continuous span of activities, stretching from stability, security, reconstruction and terminating at armed conflict. The paper explains that hybrid warfare is the instrument of choice by the challengers, primarily India, to weaken Pakistan, subjugate it and either balkanise it or make it a flaccid state as the least desired objective. With hybrid warfare as an instrument of application against Pakistan, this article has attempted to dissect hybrid warfare's contours and its impact on Pakistan.

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Hassan jalil shah, school of social sciences and humanities, nust.

Professor at the Department of Government and Policy, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

Muhammad Ehsan, National Defence University

MPhil in Public Policy & Strategic Security Management from National Defence University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected].

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Applicability of Hybrid Warfare to Pakistan: Challenges and Possible Responses

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CSS Essay on Hybrid Warfare, Fifth Generation Warfare

CSS Essay Outline on Hybrid Warfare, Fifth Generation Warfare

Table of Contents Toggle CSS Essay Outline on Hybrid Warfare, Fifth Generation Warfare I. Hybrid warfare, Gray zone warfare, Fifth Generation warfare II. The USA most powerful military empire III. The changing character and the taxonomy of conflict. Why more conflicts are being fought at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. IV. Inevitable transformation of China and Russia military might V. Influence of Unrestricted Warfare (1999 PLA)by Qiao and Wang VI. Why Russia and China evolved their unique strategies ? VII. Chin’s “informationised” warfare-decades old military strategy VIII. Fought in five domains IX. Comprehensive toolset: Methods employed X. Major theatres XI. Major players XII. Russian grey-zone strategy XIII. Chinese greyzone strategy expanding the turbulent maritime periphery: Gray Zone conflicts with Chinese characteristics – String of Pearls policy-What are the pearls at the IOR- Indian Ocean region? XIV. BRI’s six arms XV. Iran XVI. Israel and the challenges of Hybrid Warfare XVII. India’s hybrid warfare against Pakistan XVIII. Iran’s hybrid war against Pakistan XIX. The Arab countries hybrid war against Pakistan XX. Prominent complexities, paradoxes, and nuances at the heart of the gray zone idea XXI. Options for Pakistan: Need of coherent response and counter strategies to hybrid warfare XXII. Conclusion (Dedicated to Shaharyar Afridi, Interior Minister, his most favorite topic) CSS Essay Outline on Hybrid Warfare, Fifth Generation Warfare

In the modern parlance of military configuration, the much-hyped mantra of the Hybrid Warfare or the Fifth Generation Warfare is one of the most complexes, vague and threateningly overlapping component of war. In the post-WW II scenario, the US has developed world-class military might, sophisticated society, and exponentially booming economic prowess. This, with the grim progression of events, paved the way for countering the global US hegemonic status through asymmetric, unconventional warfare strategies. As a result, the invasive, lethal form of hybrid warfare gained momentum.

“There are but two types of men who desire war: those who haven’t the slightest intention of fighting it themselves, and those who haven’t the slightest idea what it is. … Any man who has seen the face of death knows better than to seek him out a second time.” Ibraham Lincoln

I. Hybrid warfare, Gray zone warfare, Fifth Generation warfare

A. Literal meaning 1. Combination of two or more distinct elements B. In the parlance of modern military warfare 1. deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of conventional military conflict and open interstate war 2. Achieve those gains without escalating to overt warfare 3. Without crossing established red-lines 4. Without exposing the practitioner to the penalties and risks that such escalation might bring 5. The province of revisionist powers—those actors that seek to modify some aspect of the existing international environment—and the goal is to reap gains, whether territorial or otherwise 6. Unlike traditional warfare, grey-zone strategies will not produce decisive results within a defined time frame

II. The USA most powerful military empire

A. The most capable armed forces in the world spending more than the next nine nations combined

III. The changing character and the taxonomy of conflict. Why more conflicts are being fought at the lower end of the conflict spectrum.

A. Globalization B. Mass access to technology and communications C. Asymmetric reactions to U.S. tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq

IV. Inevitable transformation of China and Russia military might

A. H.R. McMaster, Donald Trump’s national security adviser, once observed: “There are two ways to fight the United States: asymmetrically and stupid”. B. The emerging powers do threaten critical U.S. interests through “strategic disruption” ,means the use of asymmetric methods.

V. Influence of Unrestricted Warfare (1999 PLA)by Qiao and Wang

A. A combination of different warfare and tactics for the achievement of objectives

VI. Why Russia and China evolved their unique strategies ?

A. The use of state of the art weapons by the US equally impressed by the precision-strike capabilities that America demonstrated in the first Gulf war, sought ways to reap some of the political and territorial gains of military victory without crossing the threshold of overt warfare.

VII. Chin’s “informationised” warfare-decades old military strategy

A. Revolution in military affairs B. Advances in microprocessors C. Sensors and communications

VIII. Fought in five domains

A. Physical landscape B. Cognitive manipulation C. Information spectrum D. Economic fabric E. Social configuration

IX. Comprehensive toolset: Methods employed

A. Disruptive cyber attacks B. Propaganda and subversion C. Economic blackmail and sabotage D. Sponsorship of proxy forces E. Creeping military expansionism F. Destabilizing social media influence G. Anonymous “little green men” instead of recognizable armed forces making overt violations of international borders

X. Major theatres

A. Russia annexed Crimea Russia annexed Crimea and is fomenting civil conflict and separatism in eastern Ukraine; Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine, for example, directly challenge international norms against territorial annexation and put NATO solidarity at risk. B. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) burst into international headlines by beheading civilians and grabbing land in Iraq and Syria; ISIL controlling parts of Iraq and Syria threatens global energy markets, decreases regional stability, and increases the chance of conflict between Sunni and Shia communities. C. Boko Haram in Nigeria Boko Haram has been conducting a brutal insurgency in Nigeria; and D. The Houthi rebellion in Yemen The Houthi rebellion in Yemen has accelerated and driven the country’s president out of the capital. The Houthi insurgency increases the risk of a regional clash between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which could also spark a broader Sunni-Shia conflict. E. The Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan F. The Kurds in the Middle East and Asia

XI. Major players

The clearest recent cases of grey-zone challenges are Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, China’s assertive behaviour in the South and East China Seas and Iran’s use of proxy militias to establish an arc of influence from Iraq through Syria into Lebanon. All three countries recognise and to some extent fear superior Western military power. But all of them also see vulnerabilities that they can exploit.

XII. Russian grey-zone strategy

A. To undermine faith in Western institutions B. Encourage populist movements by meddling in elections C. Using bots and trolls on social media to fan grievances and prejudice but in Ukraine Russia provided a near-textbook example of it in its modern form, using a variety of techniques: sophisticated propaganda that stirred up local grievances and legitimized military action; cyber attacks on power grids and disruption of gas supplies; covert or deniable operations, such as sending “little green men” (soldiers in unmarked green army uniforms) into Crimea and providing weapons and military support to separatist irregular forces; the threat of “escalating to de-escalate”, even including limited use of nuclear weapons. Since 2014, Russia has destabilized and dismembered Ukraine through the use of armed proxies, “volunteer” forces, and unacknowledged aggression.

XIII. Chinese greyzone strategy expanding the turbulent maritime periphery: Gray Zone conflicts with Chinese characteristics – String of Pearls policy-What are the pearls at the IOR- Indian Ocean region?

String of Pearls the network of Chinese intentions in India Ocean Region (IOR). The network of Chinese military and commercial facilities developed by China in countries falling on the Indian Ocean between the Chinese mainland and Port Sudan. A. Gwadar (in Pakistan) the Port of Gwadar Port of Chhabar in Iran B. Hambantota (in Sri Lanka) the Port of Hambantota for Chinese use C. Chittagong (in Bangladesh) the Port of Chittagong which gives it a free access to the Bay of Bengal, which is strategically very important D. Sittwe (in Myanmar) Kyaukpyu port. The Bay of Bengal has given China access to have a commercial Maritime facility which can be used as a military facility at the time of conflict E. Maroa, Maldives the Male airport(Feydhoo Finolhu) to a Chinese company for 50 years at the cost of 4 million dollars

XIV. BRI’s six arms

A. New Eurasian Land Bridge B. China – Mongolia – Russia Corridor C. China – Central Asia – West Asia Corridor D. China – Indochina Peninsula Corridor E. China – Pakistan Corridor F. Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar Corridor

Chinese complicity in Russian-style hacker attacks on the West, but officially sanctioned trolls send out hundreds of millions of social-media posts every year attacking Western values and pumping up nationalist sentiment. In Asia, China is using gray zone tactics as part of a campaign of creeping expansionism in the South China Sea. China’s grey-zone campaign to assert uncontested control over the South China Sea and jurisdiction over disputed islands in the East China Sea has been going on for much longer, and has turned a darker shade of grey over time as the country’s confidence and power has grown. Since 2009, when China submitted a map to the United Nations showing a “nine-dash line” that supported its claim to “indisputable sovereignty” over 90% of the South China Sea (see map), it has applied what James Holmes of the US Naval War College has described as “small-stick diplomacy” (as opposed to the big stick of conventional naval power), using its highly capable coastguard and militiamen embedded in its fishing fleet to push other littoral states out of waters to which it claims ancestral rights. It has been able to cow most of its neighbours into sulky acquiescence while avoiding a direct confrontation with American naval ships, which did not want to risk a major incident over what China portrayed as maritime policing. When in 2013 China took its provocations a step further by sending civil engineers to the Spratly and Parcel archipelagoes to construct artificial islands, Xi Jinping said China had no intention of militarising them. But in 2017, satellite images released by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies showed shelters for missile batteries and military radar installations being constructed on the Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi Reefs in the Spratly Islands. Fighter jets will be on their way next. Mr Holmes suggests that such strategic gains cannot now be reversed short of open warfare, which means they will almost certainly not be. The advent of Mr Trump serves Chinese aims too. His repudiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership removed a challenge to China’s regional economic hegemony, a key objective of its grey-zone strategy. And the American president’s hostility to free trade and his decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord has allowed Xi Jinping to cast himself, improbably, as a defender of the international order.

A. Hizbullah America’s inconsistency and lack of a long-term strategy in the Middle East has offered boundless opportunities for grey-zone advantage-seeking. In the Middle East, Iran is using, as it has for many years, subversion and proxy warfare in an effort to destabilize adversaries and shift the balance of power in the region. These are leading examples of the gray zone phenomenon today.

XVI. Israel and the challenges of Hybrid Warfare

Xvii. india’s hybrid warfare against pakistan.

A. Hydrological warfare B. Terrorism and separatism in Pakistan C. Opposition to CPEC D. The mantra of isolation E. Media war and propaganda F. Relations with Afghanistan G. Construction of Iran’s Chabahar’s port H. Surgical strikes I. Transforming military doctrines

XVIII. Iran’s hybrid war against Pakistan

A. Stocking religious tensions B. Giving space to India

XIX. The Arab countries hybrid war against Pakistan

A. Making Pakistani ports dysfunctional by creating law and order situation in Karachi and Pakistan

XX. Prominent complexities, paradoxes, and nuances at the heart of the gray zone idea

A. Gray zone” cannot mean everything if it is to mean anything B. Gray zone challenges are the wave of the future—and a blast from the past C. Gray zone conflict reveals both the strengths and weaknesses of the international order D. Gray zone strategies are weapons of the weak against the strong—and of the strong against the weak E. Confronting gray zone challenges requires both embracing and dispelling ambiguity F. Gray zone conflict is aggression, but military tools are only part of the response G. America is not poorly equipped for the gray zone—but it may not be fully prepared H. Gray zone challenges can be productive and counterproductive at the same time

XXI. Options for Pakistan: Need of coherent response and counter strategies to hybrid warfare

A. Strengthening capacities Pakistan should increase its abilities to understand, adapt, and prevail in these conflicts so that they do not grow to a level of strategic disruption that threatens vital Pakistan interests.

B. Best special operations forces and more specialized conventional capabilities Pakistan must also ensure that some of its conventional capabilities are organized, trained, and equipped for these ever-expanding conflicts. Traditional military capabilities remain essential for deterring and defeating threats at the higher end of the conflict spectrum, but effectively dealing with an era dominated by gray zone conflicts requires more. The best special operations forces in the world and more specialized conventional capabilities will both be necessary to fight and win in the gray zone.

C. The defense complex should design special operations forces (SOF) 1. The conflict spectrum- SOF are deliberately designed, trained, and equipped to address the part of the conflict spectrum where gray zone conflicts occur. 2. In-depth cultural knowledge- they bring in-depth cultural knowledge to regional skirmishes around the world, often including language skills and years of building personal relationships. They can operate with low visibility and moderate risk, calling little attention to their actions. They can also provide highly capable headquarters elements to help oversee these complex challenges — organizations and leaders steeped in interagency and regional expertise, with deep cultural and unconventional warfare knowledge and experience.

D. Bolstering potent economic and financial tools E. Developing arsenal of cyber weapons, expert special forces F. Establishing a network of alliances G. Capitalizing on unmatched soft power H. Making media professional and autonomous I. Bringing political and constitutional reforms J. Putting an end to extra-territorial involvement in military and political affairs K. Disbanding terror outfits L. Improving mechanism against money laundering and terror financing

XXII. Conclusion (Dedicated to Shaharyar Afridi, Interior Minister, his most favorite topic)

About the author

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

Saeed Wazir

Saeed Wazir mentors students of CSS Essay, Précis and Current Affairs and specializes in English literature, language and linguistics from NUML. He has perused Media studies at NUST. He qualified PMS three times in a row. He serves at federal universities as marking instructor. He has been mentoring CSS English students for the last seven years and runs Facebook page: CSS Essay, Précis with Saeed Wazir. He is based in G 9/2 ,Islamabad and runs special batches of CSS Essay Précis both On-Campus and Online. He could be reached at csspms55@gmail. com and WhatsApp plus Phone no 03450997822. He contributes to CSS Times, Daily Times, Dawn, Foreign Policy and IPRI. He evaluates Online Essays, Précis and Comprehension.

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This form of warfare can be savage

Khadija Bilal

Living in the world of conflicts, every hideous action, terrible decision, hopeless thought or horrendous mistake can ruin your state in a second, such is the “art of war”. The art of war involving tactics and strategies exploiting and worsening situations, causing damage within the national boundary ranges, are encountered on severe levels which is today known as Hybrid War. Many Countries including Pakistan are facing such asymmetric conflicts, named hybrid war, under such critical situations, with conditions are getting worse day by day due to which hybrid war is now becoming a serious threat around the globe.

What we really need to know about hybrid war is that it actually involves activities conducted or featured by non-state or state actors to destabiliz and sabotage, and cause confusion and destruction within a certain country. A number of tactics, strategies and techniques influenced by non-state parties create disruption and chaos within the society. With emerging modern hybrid warfare strategies and technologies, one can achieve one’s objectives and aims against enemies without an upfront enmity and maintaining one’s own peace while affecting others.

A series of hybrid warfare roots can be, misleading through false information, fake propaganda, cyber attacks such as attacks damaging the country’s situation in the times of crisis, financial influences, economical pressure, military actions and so on. Good examples are the US involvement in the Vietnam War, the Syrian civil war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The countries lacking flexibility and pliancy in controlling and handling such warfare tactics are easily defeated and torn down, as hybrid war takes place in an interrelated operating atmosphere found within a society which highly affects and exploits the war on battlefields.

With advances in technology and increased use of the Internet as well as social media platforms, our dependence and reliance has increased on the Internet’s information too, that has led us mainly to false information and misinterpretations available on certain websites. Likewise, a large number of countries have banned the use of Wikipedia, as incorrect and making wrong information available, which faces vandalism nearly everyday.

Pakistan has handled itself quite well under the influence of Hybrid War tactics by promoting peace and harmony, not only in its own region but around the globe as well. The hybrid war today faced by many countries including Pakistan may be an old notion but new technology and a new approach has made hybrid war quite treacherous and savage

Whereas certain platforms developed in the name of spreading self and social awareness are misleading and circulating false information, blurring the visions and mindsets seeking awareness and knowledge, creating absolute confusion and dual realities. Such acts are recognised as cyberwars. Cyberwars are increasing at an alarming and dangerous rate. Every electronic device used in banks, educational institutions, multinational and national companies, government institutions and departments, even our mobile phones, computers and laptops are a great threat and challenge to national security.

There are even a fine number of apps present that can instantly hack your phones and laptops resulting in the leak of your personal photos and information, numerous apps that have your face and fingerprints access, many more apps that ask about your personal account and credit card details which are later sold to the agencies, including Facebook. Instagram and other social networking apps being a part of hybrid war are especially highly designed according to algorithms.

As we are aware of the fact that Instagram’s algorithm calculates how likely someone is to interact with a post, known as a score of interest, which determines the order in which posts are displayed in their feed and timelines. Not only that, apps like YouTube and Instagram restricted certain posts and videos by claiming them to be used against community guidelines or applying an age restriction on them, such as YouTube and Instagram taking down all posts and videos supporting  Palestinians,  but happily spreading Israeli content throughout the Internet.

Another example of cyberattack was recently discovered, that an Israeli app was being used by India to monitor and supervise politicians all over the globe. This app was installed in their mobiles, which collected confidential information and data not only through their voice recordings but also through phone call information and messages. In 2019, the USA began to attack Russian power grids through online hacking whose main aim was to physically destroy all Russian power grids and plants, all situations serving to be the part of hybrid war.

The hype that the media creates, the prophecies that anchors tell, the secrets in between the sports teams that players expose, the intelligence information that politicians leak, never quite happens on its own. Sudden rises in prices, loadshedding, sudden decreases in water supply and food resources, underdeveloped areas, malfunctioning institutions and unemployment or even drone strikes, sending spies as non-state actors, such as the identification of Kulbhushan Jhadav as an Indian agent, fake propaganda, fake movements such as the recent Balochistan separatist movement created a huge ethnic conflict in Pakistan, with all such artefacts being a part of cyberwar, mostly perceived as ‘hybrid threats’. Such a mixture of tactics and techniques results in the terror, pressure and confusion among the nation and an unidentified opponent.\

Hybrid wars have a great financial influence on the nation in certain ways, and such warfare tactics are used as hurdles for states racing towards prosperity. Investments are made through third parties or non-state actors, including uncertain energy supply deals, major foreign investments are halted for some obscure reasons, certain loans are offered to the country descending in financial crisis with the emphasis on consideration of certain conditions.

Pakistan had to face a severe economic crisis as Pakistan exporters faced difficulties with restrictive regulations, non-tariff measures affected imports and exports resulting in decline of the economy. Major industries including textile and automobile industries, faced downfall due to high oil and energy costs, shortage of electricity, decreasing quotas, high utility bills, and more. Not just this, India ruined Pakistan’s reputation all around the world, claiming it was a terrorist country and not a safe place for travelling, and partially ended tourism in Pakistan, directly affecting Pakistan’s economy. Nonetheless the attack on Sri Lanka’s cricket team played a vital role in India’s tactics for ending tourism. Such hybrid war policies makes the country vulnerable in the long political run, especially an underdeveloped state like ours.

Pakistan has handled itself quite well under the influence of Hybrid War tactics by promoting peace and harmony, not only in its own region but around the globe as well. The hybrid war today faced by many countries including Pakistan may be an old notion but new technology and a new approach has made hybrid war quite treacherous and savage.

A vicious challenge for progressive countries is posed, as conformist, irregular and terrorist modules are now increasingly a part of hybrid war. Hence to survive and avoid such factors a country mustn’t stand alone, a state must associate itself with other nations not only on political basis but a wider range of interactions such as societal, diplomatic, economical, atmospherical, and more. Such notions define the strategies and decision making of the respective states, which can be done by forming fair and subtle foreign policies. The role of non-state actors must be diminished completely, as such actors are keystones of destruction within a country. The countries must prepare themselves for the worst as well as the best.

Khadija Bilal

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Home Article Impacts of hybrid warfare on Pakistani society

Impacts of hybrid warfare on Pakistani society

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

IN the realm of power politics, hybrid warfare is widely debated in the academic circles as well as the strategic community of Pakistan. The concept of hybrid warfare is not new, however the strategies being used are new, highly technical and sophisticated. The experts of this form of warfare perceive that the 21st century will be governed by hybrid warfare; a total transformation in the format of traditional warfare. Primarily this warfare is a military strategy which combines cyber warfare, irregular warfare and political means. The distinct patterns, the modus operandi used in hybrid warfare include: spreading fake news through highly known media houses, making use of diplomatic means, law-fare and foreign electoral intervention through construction of new narratives. Precisely, hybrid warfare is non-kinetic operations with subversive efforts where the aggressor intends to avoid attribution and retribution.

Pakistan is a classic example which has physically experienced the odd of hybrid warfare, launched by rival powers; mainly the eastern and western neighbours in collaboration with many international actors. The impact of hybrid warfare was  more pronounced after Pakistan experienced and combated the war on terror, yet there are more reasons for targeting Pakistan by its foes. The disintegration of Pakistan in 1971 can be studied as a classic case of hybrid warfare, though the format, techniques and methodologies may have been quite different. It was the first test case given to RAW by the then Indian Prime Minister, Indira Ghandi. RAW once again expanded its networks of hybrid warfare within and outside Pakistan towards the beginning of the 21st Century where India found the international environment in its favour.

The Indian Chronicles exposed by EU DisinfoLab, a few years ago, indicated the level of its deep drive against Pakistan. This 15-year long operation spreading over to 119 states was a clear form of hybrid warfare against Pakistan. It was indeed the disinformation campaign against Pakistan and Pakistani contribution towards regional and global peace. THE EU DisinfoLab was a warning to the world about the bigger Indian designs of misleading the international community for its own vested interests. It is an in-depth inquiry report about Indian strategic usage of its own and international media, prominent personalities and international NGOs against Pakistan. In the entire research of EU DisinfoLab, Pakistan was the primary target of the Indian media outlet.

The 15-years long misleading media outlet headed by Srivastava Group started working in 2005 and its planning stage took many years before formal start. It was amplified by Indian news agency, ANI and continues working despite its exposure by EU DisinfoLab in early December 2020. This Group has been misleading the civilized international community for 15 years relentlessly. The operatives of this network have slowly and gradually penetrated into five major international domains; international media, the NGOs and MNCs; educational system of Europe and America, international financial institutions and government functionaries throughout the world. In 2011, Senator Chuck Hagel, US Secretary of Defense, disclosed during his address at Cameron University that India had been using Afghanistan as a second front against Pakistan. This fact has long been known to the Pakistani security establishment and Pakistan has raised it at various forums worldwide.

Along with the resurgence of militancy and terrorism from Afghan soil, after Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021, a sudden rise was noted in the campaign of politicization of Pakistani Military at the level of various political forces, several non-state actors and social media groups. These groups make use of mainstream as well as the social media for their disinformation campaigns to defame and politicize Pak Army and its premium intelligence agency in particular. This campaign had two dimensions: domestically the politicization of Pak Army aims at defamation of this institution, since it has been the most popular institution of Pakistan, loved by masses ever since Pakistan came into being. Externally it appears that after having failed in their strategies and efforts of weakening Pakistan through direct approach, the international spying networks have adopted indirect strategies to weaken Pakistan and its military. These strategies are not new, rather have been used by ancient military strategists like Carl Von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu. These strategists and many others have advised their governments to formulate strategies to defeat your enemy from within. Defeating the enemies from within have many formats and strategies like: creating fault lines, causing split, defamation and humiliation, hatching plots and conspiracies, politicization of key institutions and causing hatred against institutions of national security.

The distinctive feature of the future battlefield is war of narratives, perceptions and opinion making being implemented through hybrid warfare. In this form of warfare nation states would confront each other by using new and innovative technologies. This warfare is all about the new military strategy which indeed employs all means to subvert and win over the rivals. In fact, it is a blend of military and political warfare which make use of conventional and unconventional means, cyber warfare, irregular warfare and other means for influencing the target areas.

In the last few years through the use of hybrid warfare, launched through social media, some mainstream media groups and human rights organizations, the hostile forces have been widely influencing the masses particularly the youth in Pakistan. They are propagating pessimistic narratives against Pakistan and its key institutions through social media. Therefore, let’s not be carried away by the vested interests of these groups in the name of freedom of information and freedom of expression. The government must formulate strict policies to control the impacts of hybrid warfare on Pakistani society.

— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.

( [email protected] )

Dr Muhammad Khan

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Role of Media in Hybrid Warfare in Pakistan: How to Convert Challenges into Opportunities

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Fifth Generation Warfare and its Challenges to Pakistan

  • Muhammad Ashraf Nadeem, Dr. Ghulam Mustafa, Dr. Allauddin Kakar

Published 2021-03-29

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This research paper aims to analyze fifth generation warfare and its challenges to Pakistan. In modern era, wars are not declared or waged conventionally: instead it is instigated by clandestine agents using military, non-military, media, cyber tools, information operations, NGOs, non-state actors, intelligence agencies, propaganda, economic tools, insurgency and terrorism. The adversaries have been waging FGW against Pakistan for long. Pakistan became nuclear power in 1998 and declaring conventional battle remains very hard for adversaries. Hence, they are using tools of fifth generation warfare against Pakistan to destabilize it internally and gain their nefarious designs. The enemies are behind conspiracies to destabilize Pakistan internally and undermine its image in global community, sponsoring, financing and training terrorists to conduct covert operations within Pakistan’s territory. In present era of hybrid warfare, Pakistan is facing threats to its national unity due to negative role of some foreign countries. At present, media campaigns against Pakistan are at full swing. The enemies have been spreading propaganda, misleading reports, and false news to damage national unity of Pakistan. They are trying to influence international institutions, particularly FATF to portray Pakistan as terrorist sponsoring state. Pakistan is being subjected to fifth generation warfare massively. This research paper highlights challenges of FGW Pakistan is presently facing

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Fifth Generation Warfare and the Challenges for Pakistan

Fifth Generation

Shafaat Ullah Shah

“For the present, we are at war and do not grasp the dimensions of the conflict.”

Ralph Peters

The term Fifth-Generation War has become a favorite acronym in Pakistan with media, politicians and military analysts, without the majority imbibing its true meanings. This is partially due to its evolving nature and the fact that the theoretical construct often neglects insights about the enduring nature of war. In order to gain an insight into its concept and the changing character of war, it is imperative to refer to earlier generations of warfare .

While the first three generations of warfare were clearly delineated, the Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) obscures more than it explains. In simple terms,  4GW is a conflict characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and politics, combatants and civilians. The term was first used in 1989, after the demise of the Cold War era, by US analysts to describe warfare’s return to a decentralized form. 4GW was used successfully by the Afghan and Pakistan based Mujahedeen to defeat the erstwhile Soviet Union and is being used against the US today by the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW), once thought to be a generation too far in scope, has arrived and is irreversibly changing the dimensions of war. In its definition proffered by the US analysts, non-state warriors fight nation states out of sheer frustration without clear political objectives. Arguably,  this definition impedes an otherwise broad spectrum concept of warfare by confining its attributes to merely, non-state actors, frustration and void in political objectives. It could be foreign sponsored by an ideological movement like Muslim Brotherhood or Al Qaeda or a state(s) with well-defined political objectives and the motive besides frustration could be self-generated or instigation like in the case of “Arab Spring” of 2011 or even a monetary incentive for the fighters. In addition to the manner in which it expands the basic elements of war, 5GW has three distinct characteristics: its potential to achieve supra-combinations, blur the boundaries that have traditionally restricted warfare within a specified military or political range and its ability to limit the role of modern combined arms mechanized force in future conflict.

In its wake, 5GW has confronted many nations of the world, including Pakistan with an evolving strategic paradigm. Some of the affected nations could also be waging a fight against terrorists and must first confront this most potent and real threat of terrorism. The war on terrorism in itself manifests unprecedented advancements in the dimensions of conflict and has been characterized in many ways. It has been called as a new type of war, where the enemy is not a defined entity but a movement and as a war of ideas against extremism and without any borders. Simultaneously, and because war is a social institution that evolves along with changes in societies, political entities and technologies, if a nation is to maintain its security, it  must also look beyond the war on terror and prepare itself for the ascension of 5GW. This kind of unrestricted warfare demands a totally new thinking and approach, different from the perspective of military preparedness for past wars and embracing the perspective of national preparedness for the evolving spectrum of future forms of conflicts.

As the divisive demarcation between 5GW and its earlier version is blurred, there has not been any concrete evidence which fully illustrates its criterions. Some plausible manifestations in the context of Pakistan could be the use of media to propagate against the State and its institutions, cyberattacks, fake news, social media, money laundering, hacking of bank accounts, secessionist movements in Baluchistan, sectarian strife, creating unrest by raising popular religious slogans ( blasphemy related protests by TLYR) hacking etc . The acts of terrorism especially against hard core military targets like Naval and Kamra military bases and targeting foreign missions like the Chinese Consulate with responsibilities claimed by various terrorists entities like Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TPP), ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Baluchistan Liberation Army(BLA), but would have been perpetrated by hostile foreign power(s) to showcase the weakness of the State and erode conventional war fighting capability. The primary objective of these nefarious activities is to mar the credibility of the State, create a wedge between Army and the Executive, create mass unrest and portray Pakistan unsafe for foreign investment and as a failed state.

Defining challenges facing Pakistan related to its national authority, national interests and national will by 5GW are relatively easy, more difficult is to find antidotes to these enigmas. The quest is further compounded due to the nascent and evolving nature of this warfare. As 5GW meets Clausewitz’s definition of war as the ‘’continuous interaction of opposite”, a cogent response must also address multiple aspects to equip and respond to any eventuality both in kinetic and non-kinetic forms. As a cardinal principle of the response parameters, first, a long term strategic perspective of security must be taken, second, focus must shift from a pure military dimension to all elements of the national power to shape conflict termination, third, the elements of national power must be transformed by not mere reorganization of government apparatus but a redefinition of forms and functions. In the context of Pakistan, to surmount the challenges of new brands of warfare, it is imperative to highlight certain response parameters.

Firstly, given that National Action Plan has political consensus and a broad framework of involvement of all the elements of national power, it should be implemented in totality. Secondly, there is an urgent need to revive the national spirit, fervor and the Ideology of Pakistan. We still tend to align ourselves more with the Muslim Umma, than our country which has been created on the basis of Islamic Ideology. All Arab Nations describe themselves as Arabs first and Muslims later. Also, local governments provide channels of communications and implementation of reform policies and hence need to be empowered at the  grass root levels. It is doubly important to improve all tiers of governance and strengthen their accountability.

Moreover, there is a dire need  to control mosques and madrasas with the objective of controlling extremism. No Muslim country has progressed without achieving this. Data in today’s world is a precious national asset. We have no safeguards for the protection of data and hence we must take measures to secure data and turn it into an important cog in policy-making.

Another important area that we need to work on is Cyber Security. Cyber-warfare provides easy disruption options for the malfunctioning of government and financial institutions without detection of the originators. Therefore, a lack of focus on this domain can prove costly for Pakistan.

There are other recommendations that, if implemented, can help Pakistan mitigate the challenges emanating from this new form of warfare:

  • Media Management both through internal principles, ethics and censorship of news against national interests / institutions.
  • A wholesome analyses of the threats facing us in the spectrum of 5GW, Hybrid Warfare to streamline response parameters.
  • A drastic review of our foreign relations and closing of fronts to focus resources towards most potent threat(s).
  • Revision of curriculum from primary to masters to include inculcation of national moorings, ideology and sacrifices rendered in salvation of Pakistan to name a few.

To conclude, in a globalized world today, Pakistan like many other countries is facing multiple threats to its sovereignty both by internal elements and hostile states. These challenges call for a wide ranging discourse for an in-depth understanding of this ever evolving threat spectrum and gearing up all elements of national power to mount a potent response.

Lt. Gen Shafaat Ullah Shah (Retd) is former Military Secretary to the President, Corps Commander, Lahore and was Pakistan’s Ambassador to the Kingdom of  Jordan.

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Discuss the instrument and techniques of Hybrid warfare in the context of Pakistan and give suitable recommendations to overcome hybrid warfare.

Discuss-the-instrument-and-techniques-of-Hybrid-warfare-in-the-context-of-Pakistan-and-give-suitable-recommendations-to-overcome-hybrid-warfare

  • Daniyal Sarwar
  • August 21, 2022
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Instruments and Hybrid warfare techniques in the context of   Pakistan | CSS Current Affairs | CSS Current Affairs Notes | CSS Solved Current Affairs Past Papers

The following article is written by Daniyal Sarwar , a student of Sir Syed Kazim Ali . Moreover, the article is written on the same pattern, taught by Sir to his students, scoring the highest marks in compulsory subjects for years. Sir Kazim has uploaded his students’ solved past paper questions so other thousands of aspirants can understand how to crack a topic or question, how to write relevantly, what coherence is, and how to include and connect ideas, opinions, and suggestions to score the maximum.

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

Introduction

Hybrid warfare is a mixture of kinetic and none kinetic measures against your rivals to achieve your tactical, military and diplomatic objectives. Likewise, Pakistan is facing multi-dimensional and multi-directional challenges where the dominant threat steams from its Eastern neighbour. Still, the involvement of other state and non-state actors further aggravated the situation. But still, if some pragmatic steps are to be taken by the successive government, civil society, and media, then Pakistan must be away from the menace of hybrid warfare.

The theoretical paradigm of hybrid warfare

  • Global dominance theory
  • Wardens five-ring theory 

Tools of hybrid warfare

  • Colar   revolution’s   Insurgency   or   unconventional   warfare
  • Economic   leverage
  • Information   warfare  

The prevailing threat of hybrid warfare to Pakistan 

Non-state Actors 

  • Sectarian organizations 

State Actors

  • Political subversion: diplomatic
  • Economic: CPEC propaganda by Indian 
  • Military: wedge by armed forces and the public by mythical news
  • Nuclear assets: fake narratives against our atomic asset.
  • Psychological   subversion
  • Proxy warfare: establishing front groups and inflicting the institutions of the state

Implications of hybrid warfare for Pakistan 

  • Economic implications 
  • National image crises 
  • Social implications 

Recommendations to overcome hybrid warfare

  • Work on vulnerability and weaknesses 
  • Awareness at the grassroots level 
  • Exposing anti-Pakistan designs regionally and globally 
  • Economic and financial reforms
  • Utility of think tanks and narrative culture 
  • Foreign solid policy to penalize evil tactics 

Critical Analysis  Conclusion 

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

Nothing seems to hamper state progresses socially, politically, and economically the way hybrid warfare does. For instance, hybrid warfare is a mixture of kinetic and none kinetic measures against your rivals to achieve tactical, military, and diplomatic objectives. There are numerous hybrid warfare tools, including colour revolutions, Insurgency, economic leverage, and information warfare. Likewise, Pakistan has faced several multi-dimensional and multi-directional challenges, such as state actors, political subversion, psychological subversion, nuclear assets, proxy warfare, and wedge between armed forces and government aggravated the situation in the country. On the other hand, there have been several non-state actors’ challenges, such as TTP, ISIS, and sectarian organizations, which will further turn the country into turmoil. Moreover, there have been various implications due to hybrid warfare, like human loss_econamic implications_national image crises, and social implications; therefore, Pakistan has suffered a lot due to hybrid warfare in recent years. But still, some pragmatic steps to be taken by successive governments, including work on vulnerabilities, awareness at the grass-root level, exposing anti-Pakistan design at both regional and global levels, the utility of think tanks, and last but not least, the solid foreign policy further penalized evil tactics. Therefore, it can be observed that hybrid warfare hampers Pakistan from the internal side and external elements, creating a deadlock in the country. So there must be some practical measures constituting the DDR approach to detect loopholes, deter enemies, and strengthen internal dynamics; as a result, Pakistan must move toward prosperity and stability.

Notably, when discussing the theoretical framework of hybrid warfare, there have been two famous theories, i.e. global dominance and the warden five-ring theory. First, the global dominance theory says there must be an indirect confrontation. For instance, the American strategy against Russia, such as control over the Eurasian region, proxy war in Eastern Europe, and ethnic conflict in cars countries, will threaten Russia, changing their aggressive policy to a defensive one. Hence, America claims dominance in the region. Next to it, the warden’s five-ring theory has been elaborated on the five rings of a country, such as leadership, system infrastructure, population, and military strength. According to theorists, hit the population first with misinformation, and they will go against the military and leadership; as an outcome, the population disturbs the other four rings, ironically. For example, the Vietnam war and the Gulf war in 1991 are notable examples of five ring model, where the U.S. supported north Vietnam against South and Kuwait against Iraq. Thus, it can be anticipated that both theories have influenced their region and hit mass sentiments.

Tools of hybrid warfare 

Significantly, there have been several tools of hybrid warfare, such as colour revolutions, Insurgency, economic leverage, and information warfare, which distorted the masses badly with different tactics. First of all, there came colour revolutions in which the population mass protested against leadership on corruption or any other happening as a result of this; there has been regime change in that country. For instance, an orange revolution in Ukraine, the blue revolution in Kuwait, and the green revolution in Lebanon have been notable examples of colour revolutions where big powers change regimes for their vested interests. After that, Insurgency or conventional warfare has also been a tool of hybrid warfare in which terrorist, separatist movements, and non-state elements. For example, AlQeda, Palestine, and the Afghan Insurgency have been noteworthy examples. Next to it, there is economic leverage the one country by another country. As an illustration, the U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Russia have been a glaring example of economic Embargoes. Last but not least, information warfare is another tool of hybrid warfare, where fake narratives build against the state institutions through different fake accounts; therefore, states disturb by this misinformation. Hence, it can be observed that hybrid warfare’s tools have distorted the state morale and affected the general public through typical ploys.

Non-state actors

In Pakistan’s case, several internal and external elements have proved an extensional threat to the security paradigm. In the same way, the non-state actors have remained a significant threat because they cause uncertain damage to the country. As an illustration, they include terrorist and sectarian organizations; similarly, they proved gridlock in the country. First, after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, a faction of Al Qaeda emerged as Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan based on the fundamental principle of opposing the United States and all those who support them. For instance, TTP has launched the deadliest terrorist attacks on the soil of Pakistan, including attacks on Mosques, Imambargahs, schools, and markets; consequently, TTP launched hybrid warfare against the state by spreading terror among the general public. Second, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or Islamic states commonly known as Daesh, are different names from the same groups. Likewise, the primary purpose of this organization is to establish Islamic Caliphate worldwide, and all Muslim countries should accept its legitimacy. In Pakistan, the exact extent of ISSI is unknown; however, a secret report submitted by the government of Baluchistan stated that I.S. had indicated more than ten thousand people from tribal areas and Balochistan. Until now,(I.S.)is a low-level threat to Pakistan compared to other countries like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Third, since the inception of Pakistan faced, several sectarian conflicts, and these conflicts have eroded the society periodically. For example, the hybrid conflict came due to the involvement of foreign hands like Saudi Arabia and Iran, who fought proxies in Pakistan by funding different sectarian outfits in Pakistan. Consequently, it can be observed that these non-state actors are considered a deadlock in the country’s progress for many years., and the government needs immediate measures to curb this menace.

Undoubtedly, state actors have demonstrated serious concerns for Pakistan on social, political, and economic levels. First, Pakistan is facing several political subversion through people at different levels of understanding. As an illustration, certain NGOs and other agents of violence-hit those ideas by utilizing hybrid techniques to incite people to protest and violence against the state and its institutions. Next to it, CPEC has been considered a regional game. Still, India, on the other hand, has started to employ hybrid tactics to counter CPEC, including kinetic and non-kinetic means. In particular, The arrest of Kulbhushan Yadav in Balochistan and, later on, the confession made are a clear manifestation of the Indian hybrid warfare design against Pakistan. Afterwards, there has been a wedge between the public and armed forces, like fake news, the military is blamed for economic woes, and also facing several challenges from the internal and external end, including attacks on conveys, infrastructure, and schools, because the enemy is employing hybrid tactics against them. Moreover, Pakistan is the only Islamic state with capability; however, a bogus narrative built against them, such as Pakistan, is portrayed as unsafe where nuclear weapons may fall into the hands of terrorist organizations. Pakistan is also propagated primary source of nuclear proliferation around the world.

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

In the same way, psychological subversion has been considered a nail in the coffin, different tools of hybrid warfare are employed to create a synchronized impact on the population’s mind and create a dilemma. To illustrate, the terrorist attacks_poltical turmoil_Army public school incident_ kidnappings and many other instruments are employed to achieve psychological subversion. Last but not least, proxy warfare by several fronts groups will further aggravate the country’s situation into turmoil. Accordingly, it can be said that state actors have played a role in demoralizing the country’s standards both internally and externally.

Implications of hybrid warfare in Pakistan 

Admittedly, hybrid warfare has enormous implications in Pakistani society, including human loss, economic implications, national image crises, and social implications. The war on terror has exacted a very high human cost for Pakistan in the last fourteen years, including terrorist attacks, political and ethnic violence, sectarian violence, and target killings are notable examples of human suffrage. Furthermore, as a consequence of terrorism, the Pakistani economy suffers a significant impact; simultaneously, the war on terror has given a significant blow to Pakistan in the economic domain. Likewise, with the massive development expected through CPEC and its geostrategic location, Pakistan is expected to become the most prominent victim of hybrid warfare exploitation by the United States and India. In addition, Pakistan has deliberately suffered internationally from the United States, Afghanistan, and India.

On the one hand, the recent move by India to blocklist Pakistan is a big game to create more severe challenges. On the other hand, the national and international media ironically tarnish the country’s image. Finally, perception management techniques employed in the hybrid domain have played a more significant role in creating challenges in the social domain. For example, Pakistan has been subjected to nationalism in the hatred domain where people have feelings of being Balochi_Punjabi_Sindhi_and Pathan but not Pakistanis. In brief, it can be anticipated that these factors deteriorated society from different angles.

Recommendations to overcome hybrid warfare 

Meanwhile, several recommendations exist to overcome the scenario of hybrid warfare by different means:

  • The government must work on vulnerabilities and weaknesses, so reforms must be introduced to overcome the menace of hybrid warfare as early as possible. After that, there must be consciousness at the grassroots level of governmental, military, and educational institutions as well as different factions of society about the looming threat of hybrid warfare; thus, it can be done through different seminars and workshops to eradicate the hazard of hybrid warfare.
  • There must be a proper campaign to expose anti-Pakistan design regionally and globally, using think tanks, research institutes, and military cooperation, and jeopardizing these anti-state designs as soon as possible.
  • There is a dire need to introduce economic reforms to elevate the nation’s economy; therefore, supporting defences mechanism in arm against hybrid threats and distribution of shares to provinces according to their requirements stabilize the economy and the country.

Likewise, there will be the utility of think tanks to neutralize hybrid tactics as soon as possible; as an illustration, famous think tanks are IPRI, PIPS, PILDAT, and ISIS.

In the same way, the information shared by these think tanks be authentic rather than fake propaganda narratives against the state. Last but not least, a robust foreign policy must stabilize evil tactics because foreign policy provides a stable mechanism between different countries vibrantly. Thus, it can be perceived that these measures will be considered a bright spark if institutions, media, and the public participate equally in Pakistan’s bright future.

Critical Analysis 

Undoubtedly, the scenario of hybrid warfare has hampered state progress socially, politically, and economically. For instance, there have been several internal and external threats to Pakistan’s security; therefore, society has to face overwhelming challenges. Meanwhile, the tactics used for hybrid warfare have not only disturbed the masses but also the image of the country also melted down. Hence, Pakistan is good in the challenging power domain; as an illustration, our armed forces broke the conventional 50 years myth, including Airforce knockout, Submarine detection, and missile removal. Likewise, Pakistan has faced several challenges in the soft power domain because they cannot justify which news is our and which is not. But still, if some practical measures are taken by civil society, media, and government, such as exposing anti-state design, building a valid narrative, clarity of goals and objectives, and control of fake news. Accordingly, Pakistan will be making pragmatic steps to curb the menace of hybrid warfare because it destroys a country like a beast of burden.

Conclusion 

To conclude that it can say that Pakistan has several internal and external challenges of hybrid warfare. Similarly, the societal fault lines are exploited by our internal and external adversaries to create problems for Pakistan on multiple fronts. In addition, the state and none state actors have exposed the threat of hybrid warfare to Pakistan for many years, and they build a narrative of fake news, hatred, and psychological subversion among the public. As a result, social, political, and economic implications have prevailed in the county. However, Pakistan needs to adopt immediate measures to understand the dynamic of hybrid warfare as Pakistan is the only country facing a full spectrum of hybrid warfare. To sum up, it can say that there must be a dire need to tackle the tactics of hybrid warfare for Pakistan; for this purpose, Pakistan will work on its loopholes to achieve the objective of sustainable peace.

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hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

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Facing up to China’s Hybrid Warfare in the Pacific 

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The China Coast Guard is expanding its reach in the Pacific, part of a broader campaign to increase Beijing’s security role in the region.

Facing up to China’s Hybrid Warfare in the Pacific 

A crewman of a China Coast Guard vessel gestures at a Philippine government vessel to move away as the latter tries to enter the Second Thomas Shoal, March 29, 2014.

This year, for the first time ever, the People’s Republic of China registered 26 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels to operate in the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission Convention Area. The Convention manages 20 percent of the globe, from the Aleutians in the North Pacific, all the way down to the Southern Ocean. 

It is also the area of the First, Second, and Third Island Chains. 

The CCG, widely used for gray-zone operations in disputed waters, will soon legally be allowed to board any foreign fishing vessels on the high seas in the First, Second, and Third Island Chains. 

hybrid warfare and pakistan essay

The area of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. Map via the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

Since 2020, China has also had four Coast Guard vessels registered to monitor foreign fishing vessels in the North Pacific Fishing Commission Area. Starting from June this year, China will have the third largest maritime security presence patrolling throughout the whole of the Pacific, after the United States and Australia.

The CCG is the maritime branch of the  People’s Armed Police of China , which is led by the Central Military Commission of China . Its vessels are built to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) specifications. The Coast Guard operates directly under the PLAN in a time of war. 

In a steady process of attrition, Xi Jinping’s China is challenging the existing strategic order, and doing so through acts below the threshold of warfare.

China is using multiple channels, and notably dual-use military-civil activities, to normalize and legitimize its growing military and intelligence presence in the Pacific. China’s hybrid warfare activities are now the most significant traditional security threat in the Pacific. Xi has made it clear that Beijing does not share the values of the rules-based international order and has been telling the Chinese people to prepare for war .

For more than 70 years the sea lines of communication and chokepoints of the Pacific have been protected under the strategic denial policy of the United States and its regional security partners, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. 

The United States and its partners’ strategic denial set up was one of the lessons-learned recommendations after World War II. It is aimed to exclude adversaries that do not share the same security interests and values from establishing a military presence in the Pacific. 

The inherent weakness of the policy has always been that the many small island developing states within the Pacific benefit from the security guarantee but have no alliance commitment to it. There is no military agreement that binds the Pacific island nations together, though the 2000 Biketawa and 2018 Boe Declarations state that any security challenges in the region should be dealt with collectively.

In the Xi Jinping era, China has aggressively targeted states along the First , Second and Third Island Chain with gray-zone activity, foreign interference, and repeated attempts to set up a China-centered security alliance for the region. 

But China’s actions did not just begin when Xi came to power. For more than 24 years, the PLA has been providing in-depth training, doctrine, weapons, military vehicles and vessels, uniforms, and military buildings to the military forces of Tonga, Fiji, and Papua New Guinea. China’s domestic intelligence agency , the Ministry of Public Security, has signed secret cooperation agreements with police departments in Fiji, Kiribati, Vanuatu, and Solomon Islands. PLAN vessels have been visiting the Pacific for 20 years for both military diplomacy and spying trips . The PLA is also accessing the Pacific by using PLA vessels and planes for humanitarian and disaster relief.

A global military power requires friendly ports, airfields, and satellite ground stations in foreign countries. From Kiribati to Vanuatu to French Polynesia, Beijing-connected companies have repeatedly tried to gain access to militarily significant airfields and ports. China has been thwarted in all those efforts. 

Instead, over the last 10 years, funded by the Asian Development Bank and World Bank, China’s state-owned enterprises have built the bulk of all strategic airports, ports, and ring roads in the island developing nations of the Pacific. 

China’s government sponsors foreign interference activities in every state and territory of the Pacific, which has a corrosive effect on local politics. That makes it hard for states to defend themselves against China’s malign activities that affect their sovereignty such as illegal, unreported, unregulated (IUU) fishing.  

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Now is the time for its signatories, the developing island states of the Pacific, and Australia and New Zealand, to work collectively to face up to the challenge of China’s hybrid warfare in the Pacific, in the same way they are now working collectively to address the main nontraditional security challenge in the region, climate change.

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  1. Hybrid Warfare: Emerging Challenges for Pakistan

    Pakistan has been at the fore in the aftermath of more than 40 years of war, civil unrest, and insurgency, along with terrorism and foreign involvement in Afghanistan. It has borne the brunt of terrorism in the wake of 9/11. Pakistan has been persistently subjected to various instruments of hybrid warfare.

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  8. PDF Hybrid Warfare and its Nuances: A Case-Study from South Asia

    Hybrid Warfare and its Nuances: A Case-Study from South Asia Dr Farah Naz* & *Dr Zia ul Haque Shamsi * Abstract In a hypothetical sense, hybrid war, in its all nuances, may prove extremely damaging for Pakistan due to certain evident fault lines in country's security infrastructure and body-politick. India and

  9. HYBRID WARFARE

    there is little by way of collectively responding to the threats launched from various. technical platforms. This paper is an attempt to look into the transformation of war. fighting and suggests a few policy options for Pakistan to take up the challenges of hybrid. warfare and keep the national will and morale intact during the worst of times.

  10. Hybrid Warfare: Emerging Challenges for Pakistan

    The paper explains that hybrid warfare is the instrument of choice by the challengers, primarily India, to weaken Pakistan, subjugate it and either balkanise it or make it a flaccid state as the least desired objective. With hybrid warfare as an instrument of application against Pakistan, this article has attempted to dissect hybrid warfare's ...

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  17. Impacts of hybrid warfare on Pakistani society

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  18. Role of Media in Hybrid Warfare in Pakistan: How to Convert Challenges

    In the defense community, the use of hybrid warfare has expanded. It is generally labeled as contemporary warfare. The term is usually adopted in strategic documents such as the national government of Pakistan, developing regions, as well as developed nation central such as NATO, and EU, based on which various articles have been presented.

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