$11.4 billion
$11.6 billion
1.5%
Total operating expenses
$20.4 billion
$20.1 billion
(1.4%)
Data source: UPS presentations.
The bulls' case for UPS emphasizes that the company will pass an inflection point in 2024 as the company laps the period when its compensation costs increased, and as volumes return to year-over-year growth as it wins back the business it lost during its contract dispute. Indeed, management forecasts that in the second half of 2024, adjusted operating profits will increase by 20% to 30% year over year.
An increase in delivery volumes should help to reduce overcapacity in the industry and help UPS grow its revenue per piece over the next few years. On the cost-per-piece side of the equation, management believes its investments in automation and smart facilities will enable UPS to keep costs in check by consolidating facilities. In addition, these technological investments mean UPS can expand capacity via productivity initiatives rather than purely through investment in new facilities.
UPS also continues to focus on growing revenue in the higher-margin targeted end markets of small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) and healthcare logistics. Management aims to increase its penetration of the U.S. SMB market from 29% in 2023 to 40% over time. In healthcare logistics, management plans to double its revenue from $10 billion in 2023 to $20 billion in 2026.
Management expects these growth, productivity, and cost initiatives to result in the following in 2026.
|
|
|
---|---|---|
Revenue | $91 billion | $108 billion |
Adjusted operating profit | $9.9 billion | $14.3 billion |
Adjusted operating profit margin | 10.9% | 13%-plus |
Free cash flow | $5.2 billion | $7 billion |
UPS' healthcare logistics and SMB plans are ambitious, but also in line with the excellent trends the company has established. For example, its increase in U.S. SMB penetration from 27% in 2021 to 29% in 2023 resulted in a 12% increase in revenue per piece, and its fast-growing healthcare logistics revenue comes with higher-than-average margins.
In addition, its technology investments make sense and will help lower costs -- UPS will cut 12,000 jobs this year to reduce costs by $1 billion. Furthermore, the plan's greater reliance on boosting revenue per piece than on volume increases aligns with management's focus on growing its most profitable revenue streams rather than purely chasing volume growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
That said, the one area of concern is an oversupply of capacity in the U.S. small package delivery market (following the capacity expansion that logistics providers engaged in during the high-demand years of pandemic-necessitated lockdowns and social distancing). UPS is relying on demand to catch up. That could take some time, particularly if economic growth disappoints. However, since that risk is front-end loaded into the three-year plan (meaning the most significant risks are in the near term due to the current levels of overcapacity), the stock will be highly attractive if UPS can deliver a quarter or two of results in line with expectations.
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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Arlington, VA, United States
Learn more about our Call for Proposals
The 2025 ISPE Aseptic Conference hosts the newest developments in aseptic processing and technologies. The complexity of aseptic processing is changing and includes advanced technologies such as robotics, advanced automation, and process improvements. It addresses the complex challenges of the manufacturing of aseptic and sterile products, mainly driven by product quality and safety, in a market where time to clinic and time to market is critical.
The conference will continue to examine the implications of the revised Annex 1, as it is setting new benchmarks for aseptic and sterile product manufacturing, Quality Risk Management, Contamination Control Strategy, and technological advancements.
Date | Action |
---|---|
10 June 2024 | Opens |
29 July 2024 | Submission Deadline |
24 September 2024 | Notifications |
Abstract submissions are to be submitted as individual, 30-minute presentations:
Presentations should focus on new and innovative approaches, a specific real-world strategy or campaign (case study), a “how-to" presentation intended to help attendees gain a better understanding of the initiative and best practices that they can apply to their day-to-day objectives or overall missions.
Given the impact of an aging population, the increase in chronic diseases or those yet to have therapies, the need for a constant focus on collaborative innovation and agility will shape Pharma’s priorities in the foreseeable future. ISPE will be the leader in setting the pace for knowledge sharing that speaks to the current and future needs of the industry.
The 2025 Aseptic Program Committee is requesting proposals aligning with the following content areas:
1. Regulatory, Compliance & Quality
Regulatory and quality challenges, learnings, and opportunities which might include the current speed to market expectations, regulatory harmonization initiatives, and guidance updates. This content area will explore the implementation of European regulatory changes and the industry's feedback on the revised guidelines for sterile medicinal products. Specifically, we are interested in proposals that elaborate on:
2. Sustainability/Environmental
The sterile products industry has and should continue to put patient safety and quality of products as the ultimate priority. At times, this has led to sacrifices in other areas that should not be neglected also considering the newly developed technologies available today. For example, the industry is responsible for significant HVAC use, high amounts of water consumption, and the use of virgin polymers destined for single use with impacts on waste streams.
As a response to these issues stated above, some pharma manufacturers are looking to increase the focal areas to concurrently consider environmental and public health impacts when designing and managing operations. The 2025 ISPE Aseptic Conference will showcase how we/they/ are leading the way in facility designs, equipment and process innovation as well as data management and use to also have a positive impact on:
3. Robotization and Digital Revolution of Aseptic Processing
The enormous advantages automation brings to aseptic processing in terms of reducing the impact of human interactions, minimizing contamination risk, and improving OEE, have driven the development of new solutions in the last decade. In 2025 Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning has become, for some of us, a work companion in daily life; the same and eventually greater potential stands also in aseptic processing among the different GMP operations advancements; in this sense, they are of extreme interest in this session.
Examples of possible submissions/case studies/use cases could be any of the following:
4. Advanced Monitoring and Control Systems
The advancement of technology continues to change the way our facilities operate. The regulatory agencies are expecting systems to provide an approach that drives the highest levels of quality and safety for the patient. The long-term expectation is that this approach will have higher efficiency and lead to reduced drug shortages. Contamination Control Strategy and advanced monitoring supports aseptic processing. What is the current, and what will the future bring?
5. Aseptic Manufacturing and Facilities
The future of aseptic manufacturing holds tremendous potential for revolutionizing the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. Advancements in drug delivery, technology, increased automation, and innovative processes are poised to transform the way drugs and biologics are produced, ensuring higher quality, safety, and efficiency. To meet the increasing regulatory requirements and market demand, aseptic facilities will need to embrace isolators, robotics, automated filling and material handling and transfers, chain of custody, control systems, and real-time monitoring. This includes facility utilization in a volatile real-estate market.
6. Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products (ATMPs)
In aseptic pharmaceutical manufacturing, ATMPs present unique challenges due to their complex production processes and the need to maintain strict aseptic practices throughout the manufacturing process. This requires specialized facilities, equipment, and expertise to ensure that the final product is safe, effective, and free from contamination.
7. Advances in Aseptic Manufacturing of Antibody Drug Conjugates (ADCs)
Antibody Drug Conjugates is a growing platform for drug delivery for many types of drug compounds. Most but not all ADCs are used to treat cancers. We continue to see a rise in both the number and types of cancers. Significant advances have been made in therapies, particularly in the field of Antibody Drug Conjugates (ADCs). These innovative treatments allow for the targeted delivery of potent therapeutic agents directly to tumor cells via specific Antibodies. By selectively targeting cancer cells, ADC enables physicians to use highly potent drugs while minimizing potential damage to healthy tissues. Manufacturing these complex products requires advanced engineering, specialized equipment, and stringent procedures. Topics relevant to this track will include updates on the trends, discussions on the future of equipment and facilities to protect the products and the operators of the equipment, and possibly even some case studies on how groups are manufacturing these products today.
8. Radiopharmaceuticals
Radiopharmaceuticals are a field that is growing rapidly at the moment, but which also presents new challenges. Containment is of utmost importance as operator protection is paramount. All production processes need to be designed to prevent radioactive contamination, including the adjacent processes to production like cleaning and sterilization, but also quality control labs.
Examples of possible submissions/case studies could be the following:
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