essay on net zero carbon emissions 2070

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• 05 November 2021

Scientists cheer India’s ambitious carbon-zero climate pledge

• Gayathri Vaidyanathan

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India, the world’s third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. The ambitious commitment, made on 1 November at the high-stakes COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, UK, brings India in line with other big emitters, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, which have made similar promises.

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doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-03044-x

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Towards Net Zero

• 06 Jan 2022
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This editorial is based on “The Road To Net Zero” which was published in Indian Express on 05/01/2022. It talks about India's contribution in Net Zero Carbon Emissions and the role of the private sector in fulfilling its net-zero by 2070 target.

For Prelims: Net Zero Emissions, India's Net Zero by 2070 targets, CoP-26, Renewable Energy Targets, Electric Vehicles, Panchamrit advocacy of five elements for climate change at CoP-26.

For Mains : India's Contribution Towards Net Zero Carbon Emission, India's Target of Net Zero by 2070, India's Support to Electric Vehicles, India's Renewable Energy Targets.

Suffering from global warming, frequent floods and fires, Covid-19 pandemic and numerous other problems, the planet is going through an existential crisis, citing an urgent need for scientific and innovative steps to secure humanity's future.

In this context, India at UNFCCC CoP-26 announced its enhanced climate commitments — the “Panchamrit”, including a commitment to reach net-zero carbon emission by 2070.

India’s announcement of its net-zero goal is a major step considering the fact that it is not one of the major contributors to global warming . Its historical cumulative emissions are a mere 4.37% of the world’s total.

Now, to achieve its targets of 2070, India particularly needs to focus on a smoother renewable energy transition, greater adoption of electric vehicles and greater participation from the public as well as the private sector.

India's Contribution Towards Net Zero

• India has also announced the target of 50% installed power generation capacity from non-fossil energy sources by 2030, raising the existing target of 40%, which has already been almost achieved.
• India has also announced a Hydrogen Energy Mission for grey and green hydrogen.
• In energy efficiency, the market-based scheme of Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) has avoided 92 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions during its first and second cycles.
• India leapfrogged from Bharat Stage-IV (BS-IV) to Bharat Stage-VI (BS-VI) emission norms by April 1, 2020 , the latter being originally scheduled for adoption in 2024.
• A voluntary vehicle scrapping policy to phase out old and unfit vehicles complements the existing schemes.
• The Indian Railways is also charging ahead, targeting the full electrification of all broad-gauge routes by 2023.
• India’s advocacy of five elements for climate change — “Panchamrit” — at the COP26 in Glasgow is a commitment to the same.
• The remodeled Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME II) scheme
• Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) for the supplier side
• The recently launched PLI scheme for Auto and Automotive Components for manufacturers of electric vehicles.
• More than 367 million LED bulbs have been distributed under the UJALA scheme , leading to a reduction of 38.6 million tonnes of CO 2 per year.
• These two and other similar initiatives have helped India achieve a reduction of 24% in the emission intensity of its GDP between 2005 and 2016.
• For instance, the Indian cement industry has taken pioneering measures and achieved one of the biggest sectoral low carbon milestones worldwide.
• There is greater synergy of India’s climate policy with the actions and commitments of its private sector.

Associated Challenges

• Integrating a larger share of renewables with the grid is another roadblock.
• Challenges are also expected in enabling penetration of renewables in the so called hard to decarbonize sectors.
• However, the low-carbon transition challenge is bigger for companies that are largely coal-powered and contribute more than half of our country’s emissions.
• EVs have higher servicing costs which require higher levels of skills. India lacks dedicated training courses for such skill development.
• Lack of charging stations makes it unsuitable for the consumers in covering long range.
• Also, the cost of a basic electric car is much higher than the average price of a car running on conventional fuel.

Way Forward

• India should work on areas like investment in infrastructure, capacity building and better grid integration in the near and immediate future.
• Service companies can easily reduce their emissions by expanding the use of renewable energy, and working with supply chain partners. They can become carbon neutral by sourcing 50% of their electricity from renewable sources.
• For coal-powered companies, this 'energy-transition movement' offers an opportunity to invest in climate technologies and expand the use of renewable energy sources.
• To mitigate the charging issues of EVs, charging infrastructures that draw power from local electricity supply can be set up at private residences, public utilities such as petrol and CNG pumps, and in the parking facilities of commercial establishments like malls, railway stations, and bus depots.
• Since investment in local research and development is necessary to bring prices down , it makes sense to leverage local universities and existing industrial hubs.
• India can pursue countries like the UK to synergise EV development.

There is a need to act decisively to reach global net-zero, restricting future cumulative emissions to the remaining carbon budget, if the rise in temperature is to remain within the limits of the Paris Agreement.

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India for net zero: is 2070 the real deal?

Kamya Choudhary unpacks the commitments India has made at COP26 and proposes ways the country can strengthen its hand further.

Last week at COP26, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the tone for the country’s climate action trajectory by outlining five strong commitments. By 2030, India will increase its renewable non-fossil energy capacity to 500GW, meet 50% of its energy demand from renewable energy sources and reduce the economy’s carbon emissions intensity by 45%. It will also seek to reduce its total projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030 and reach its net-zero target by 2070.

A shift in outlook?

These announcements mark a significant shift in the way the country visualises its role in global climate action. In the past, India has made clear that only those responsible for historical emissions are responsible for reducing them. But now it is showing recognition that acting on climate is the path to development, and that India values resilient, inclusive and sustainable growth.

One way India is participating in coordinating international climate action is through its role in the International Solar Alliance. It is also leading by example with ambitious targets to curtail emissions and demonstrating progress on its nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

However, the announcements have been met with some scepticism. This has largely centred on two arguments: first, that 2070 is not ambitious enough relative to most economies, which have pledged to reach net zero by 2050; and second that specificity on how such goals will be achieved and financed is lacking.

Is 2070 ambitious enough?

On the timeline debate, the Indian government’s 2070 date is not drastically different from most pre-COP26 estimates of what is economically viable for the country. For example, the International Energy Agency’s India Energy Outlook 2021 report identified the mid-2060s in its Sustainable Development Scenario, and the Centre for Social and Economic Progress estimated 2065–2070 to be a fair target for net zero in India.

India’s 2070 target takes into account its contribution to total emissions in comparison to emissions released historically by developed countries, and includes policies that prioritise its economic growth. The Centre for Science and Environment details that 2070 is on a par with the commitments of industrialised nations considering OECD countries and China have significantly delayed their own net zero targets. Despite being the third largest global emitter, India’s emissions are relatively low in per capita terms. This makes India’s ‘enhanced’ commitments not only ambitious but also more useful , as it is prioritising reducing as well as removing emissions from the atmosphere.

India’s ‘enhanced’ commitments combine short-, medium- and long-term accountability measures to ensure that its net zero target is not just a “ diplomatic-tick box ”. This combination could see India’s annual greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2030, as noted by Professor Nicholas Stern . This strategy strengthens India’s mandate for a transition to a low-carbon economy.

Time for a clear plan – curtailing coal, power sector reforms and more

Post-COP26, the Indian government will have a chance to elaborate on its announcements.

To add clarity to its strategy, India can focus on how its coal and gas-dependent power sector will adapt to a net zero future and which greenhouse gases will be covered by its current commitments. India should also begin curtailing coal investments and developing repurposing plans for new and old coal plants. By leveraging international collaborations and targeted financing, such as those outlined by the Brookings Institution or the World Bank , India can transition away from coal while supporting the communities and regions impacted by this change.

Additional political pivots include adopting a formal emissions peaking year, power sector reforms and a deeper focus on carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Expanding renewable energy generation capacity would mean India will also need strong renewable energy recycling processes in place. These can include regulatory laws and infrastructure to ensure a sustainable end-of-life for its installations.

Who foots the bill?

Fast-paced progress in technological innovation and a consequent reduction in costs will continue to influence how much India can achieve by mid-century. Potentially, it could even make it possible to move the net zero goalpost forward. Facilitating this reorientation in policy and access to associated technology requirements requires financing: Prime Minister Modi indicates $1 trillion would be needed .

While India stepped up its commitments at COP26, international climate finance failed to deliver on the $100 billion commitment. Its mobilisation is anticipated to be delayed till 2023. The finances required for the scale of change demanded of countries like India must reflect the principal of climate justice and historic responsibility. Historic polluters, now wealthier countries, must first deliver on the promised $100 billion , and then at least double this commitment. Supporting India’s transition is supporting global climate change mitigation and adaptation. India’s journey will serve as a blueprint for how other developing countries can approach and finance sustainability while supporting economic growth.

Adequate and transparent international climate finance mobilisation will boost the credibility of the work that world leaders gathering at COP26 are pursuing. Developed countries must begin channelling international climate finance in a way that can be tracked to measure contributions, its final impacts, and ensure equitable access. India has decisively supported the call to protect collective global futures and current ‘commons’ by shifting gears to a more resilient development trajectory. The wealthier world is responsible for financing this shift and investing in a low-carbon global economy. The real question they now face is, can they afford not to?

Monitoring progress

India’s track record on working towards its Paris Agreement targets and other ambitious goals reflects very positively on the country’s capacity to deliver on its promises. The real test now will be how it progresses in the lead-up to 2030 and 2070 and what India’s revised NDCs include.

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Suggested Citation:  Chaturvedi, Vaibhav. 2021. Peaking and Net-Zero for India’s Energy Sector CO2 Emissions: An Analytical Exposition. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

The study focuses on insights related to four alternative scenarios: 2030 peak–2050 net-zero, 2030 peak–2060 net-zero, 2040 peak–2070 net-zero, and 2050 peak–2080 net-zero. If 2050 were chosen as a net-zero year and if carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology were commercially unviable by then, this would imply that:

Key findings

• The share of fossil energy in India’s primary energy mix would have to reduce to 5 per cent in 2050 from 73 per cent in 2015.
• 83 per cent of electricity would have to be generated from non-hydro renewable energy sources by 2050, up from 10.1 per cent in 2019.
• Biofuels would have to account for 98 per cent of India’s oil use in 2050 compared to negligible share currently.
• Over two-thirds of India’s industrial energy use and new vehicle sales would have to be electrified, compared to 20.3 per cent share of electricity in industrial energy use and negligible share in transport energy use as of now.

The key considerations in the selection of peaking and net-zero years should be the average per capita income, economic growth rate, a ‘reasonable’ pace of transition determined by the gap between peaking and net-zero years, the possibility of lock-ins and stranded assets, the cumulative emissions across the alternative peaking year–net-zero year combinations, and the economic trade-offs as presented here.

HAVE A QUERY?

Emission mitigation is a key policy objective for policymakers in India and the world. In 2020, many countries and regions, including China, the European Union (EU), Japan, Korea, and the UK, announced their net-zero ambitions (Varro and Fengquan 2020; Croatian Presidency of the Council of the European Union 2020; Reuters 2020; The Government of the Republic of Korea 2020; The Government of the United Kingdom 2020). With President Biden in office, the US is also expected to announce 2050 as the target year for achieving net-zero emissions for the US economy if he follows through on his pledge (Birol 2021). The Paris Agreement calls for limiting the global temperature increase to “well below 2 degrees Celsius” relative to pre-industrial levels. This makes it imperative that the world as a whole and individual countries begin their transition to a ‘net-zero’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting economy as early as possible. Achieving this target implies a significant increase in the rate of reduction of global emissions, a challenge for many countries. This is especially true for low-middleincome and rapidly growing economies such as India, which need to address the development aspirations of their citizens while trying to reduce emissions simultaneously.

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions, 1.82 tCO2 in 2016, was much lower than the global average of 4.55 tCO2 (World Bank 2021). Owing to its population and size of the economy, India became the fourth highest emitter in 2017 (UNEP 2019). Because India’s emissions are expected to continue to increase, its emission mitigation strategy and targets are crucial in the global climate debate.

The IEA in its recently released India Energy Outlook explores the ‘net-zero’ question (IEA, 2021a). While this analysis is useful, it is constrained by the exploration of a single scenario, namely net-zero by mid-2060s. In order to inform this critical debate in India, it is important to present alternative scenarios and highlight the trade-offs among these. Moreover, the IEA report does not dwell either on the question of peaking year, or the character for such a net-zero future, with the key insights from the report mainly focused on intermediate years and required transitions in the next two decades on the path to achieving net-zero by mid-2060s.

While the world awaits India’s announcement on a netzero year, such a statement cannot be delinked with the choice of a peaking year. For developed economies already on a declining emissions trajectory, the peaking year is not a discussion agenda. However, for fast-growing economies with a rising emissions trajectory, the need to understand the key variables that impact the choice of a peaking year is as critical as the determinants for the choice of a net-zero year. The choice of a peaking year is implicit in India’s net-zero discussion, and the two need to be analysed together.

A crucial question is: Can India peak its emissions within the next couple of decades and then continue a net-zero trajectory? The analytical exposition in this brief aims to discuss the underlying variables that will impact India’s peaking year and the journey toward net-zero emissions. The numbers in this brief refer to India’s energy and industrial process-related carbon dioxide emissions, which accounted for 88 per cent of its total GHG emissions in 2016, including land use, land-use change, and forestry (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change 2021), and the implications and insights are essential for India’s consideration of a peaking year and net-zero target.

Box 1 presents an analytical exposition of the meaning of peaking emissions based on three underlying variables: gross domestic product (GDP) growth, rate of change in primary energy intensity of GDP, and rate of change of emission intensity of primary energy. The peak emissions can be explained by the combination of these three variables. For a growing economy such as India, the key insight from the analytical exposition is as follows:

As long as India’s GDP continues to increase at a rate higher than the sum of the decline in primary energy intensity of GDP and emission intensity of primary energy, India’s carbon dioxide emissions will not peak.

Box 1: A simple arithmetic expression to explain peak in emissions

The year for peak emissions and achieving net-zero is a policy choice. Here, we provide an overview of the following four alternative scenarios for India’s peaking and net-zero years: 2030 peak–2050 net-zero, 2030 peak–2060 net-zero, 2040 peak–2070 net-zero, and 2050 peak–2080 net-zero. Based on equation (3), as given in Box 1, we can determine the effort required for peaking as follows:

GDP growth rate − sum of decline in PE intensity of GDP and decline in emission intensity of PE = effort gap

The higher the effort gap, the higher the effort required for emissions to peak. Table 1a lists our estimates for the gap in the reference scenario1 for the years immediately after the peaking year.

Table 1a Effort gap in the reference scenario

Source: Author's analysis

When could India’s carbon dioxide emission peak? If India chose to peak in 2030, then from the next year onwards, it would have to ensure that the combined rate of decline in the primary energy intensity of GDP and emission intensity of primary energy is higher than the GDP growth rate, and the effort gap would have to be bridged. Hence, it is clear from Table 1a that, with a natural decline in the GDP growth rate, the effort gap declines over time, and bridging this gap becomes easier in later years. However, if the peaking year is 2025, the effort gap would be even higher. Compared to India, bridging the gap after its peaking year is much easier for China, as its real GDP growth rate post-2030 is expected to be much lower and the per capita income is expected to be much higher. In other words, China aims to peak emissions at a much higher level of development.

If India chose to peak in 2030, then from the next year onwards, it would have to ensure that the combined rate of decline in the primary energy intensity of GDP and emission intensity of primary energy is higher than the GDP growth rate, and the effort gap would have to be bridged. Hence, it is clear from Table 1a that, with a natural decline in the GDP growth rate, the effort gap declines over time, and bridging this gap becomes easier in later years. However, if the peaking year is 2025, the effort gap would be even higher. Compared to India, bridging the gap after its peaking year is much easier for China, as its real GDP growth rate post-2030 is expected to be much lower and the per capita income is expected to be much higher.

Compared to India, bridging the gap after its peaking year is much easier for China, as its real GDP growth rate post-2030 is expected to be much lower and the per capita income is expected to be much higher. In other words, China aims to peak emissions at a much higher level of development.

Table 1b Effort gap in the low GDP growth scenario

In a low GDP growth scenario, India’s effort gap would be lower (table 1b); however, it would still be much higher than China’s effort gap. The corresponding effort gaps for 2030–35, 2040–35, and 2050–55 are 2.2 per cent, 1.8 per cent, and 1.4 per cent, respectively, in India’s low economic growth scenario. The underlying economic growth assumption under the low economic growth scenario for India during 2015–50 is 4.54 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) compared to 6.16 per cent CAGR for the reference scenario. The fluctuations in emissions intensity of primary energy and primary energy intensity of GDP reflect the numerous changes in these variables across various demand, supply, and transformation sectors hidden in the aggregate number presented here.

China has sustained a high GDP growth rate for more than three decades, resulting in high per capita income and the associated emissions. As the economy grows, the rate of economic growth is expected to slow down. Continued improvements in the emission intensity of primary energy and primary energy intensity of GDP, along with lower GDP growth rates, would allow it to peak its carbon dioxide emissions in the next decade. However, India’s case is different, mainly because of the higher GDP growth rate expected for the next few decades. Although significant progress has been made in terms of the growth in renewable energy penetration in the grid, electrification of the transport sector, and energy efficiency improvements in the buildings and industrial sector, the GDP growth effect will overpower these positive developments by a large margin for the next few decades if things continue to evolve as they have in the last decade, or along the BAU pathway.

The combination of a high GDP growth rate and a continuously declining energy efficiency improvement rate implies that the rate of decline in emission intensity of primary energy for India needs to be increased drastically to overcome the effort gap and push the peak to pre-2050. This essentially means fuel switching at a fast pace across sectors. Renewables would have to accelerate much quicker, electric vehicles would have to penetrate in a large way as early as 2030, and the industrial sector would need to move away from fossil fuels to electricity as early as possible. Energy efficiency improvements across sectors, while critical, along with high renewable energy share in the power sector, will not deliver the required shift in the peak before 2050.

A shift towards the manufacturing sector, as envisaged in the Make in India initiative, would make the transition across sectors, as discussed above, even more important as traditional manufacturing units are fossil-intensive and can negatively impact the rate of decline in emission intensity of primary energy. India needs to identify manufacturing sectors where electricity can be used as a fuel instead of fossil fuels, as well as reduce the cost of electricity to make this fuel competitive.

It should be noted here that bridging this gap is not just a matter of GDP growth. A key determinant of this effort is the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies and the favourable underlying societal conditions to adopt them. In general, if a mitigation technology becomes cost-effective, it would be available for all countries through diffusion. The market would ensure the rapid penetration of cost-effective technologies. This has been proven by the rapid global uptake of solar photovoltaic technology and the rapid increase in electric vehicle sales worldwide. Thus, we can expect that a similar mitigation technology suite is available worldwide at any given point in time. The required pace of deployment of these technologies for moving towards a net-zero world across different countries is determined by the speed of economic growth in these regions. Faster deployment of mitigation technologies to match the rapid economic growth would imply a need for rapid systemic changes and that all underlying societal factors vital for the transition align to ensure rapid systemic change. In mature economies with a slower pace of economic growth, several underlying systems assist the required pace of transition. This may not be true for emerging economies.

As discussed in the section above, the pace of the required transition is important and is determined by many variables. Table 2 presents a comparison of some countries that have announced their net-zero ambition with India’s potential scenarios.

Table 2 Comparison of some key variables for countries with net-zero ambition and India

Some key insights emerge from Table 2 . First, the per capita emissions for all other economies, including China, are much higher than those of India, even if one assumes peaking for India in 2050. Second, India’s real GDP growth rate would be much higher than any other country after their peaking years, implying a much higher effort required by India to peak and subsequently reduce emissions. Third, India would have a much lower per capita income to support the transition, even if it began the transition in 2040. Finally, the gap between the peaking year and net-zero year has been long for most countries, signifying a pace of transition that reflects a relatively less disruptive impact on energy systems and the society.

Irrespective of the challenges emerging from economic growth for the transition to a net-zero world, India needs to take decisive action to mitigate climate change. It needs to announce peaking and net-zero years urgently. However, it is not necessary to announce the peaking year. South Korea, for instance, has just announced a net-zero year, although it is unclear whether its emissions have peaked. Although India could follow a similar approach, it would not be the best strategy. A net-zero year as far as 2070 or 2080 would not push key economic actors to take decisive actions. The peaking year is a critical marker and provides a clear policy signal to various stakeholders. Table 3 presents some key indicators for the alternative peaking and net-zero scenarios discussed in this brief. These are presented for two alternative worlds, one in which carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is available, and other in which the world does not rely on this technology. CCS is a controversial technology, and presents a perverse incentive (a sort of moral hazard) to not do much in the near-term. Progress on this technology has been very slow, although IPCC assessments (e.g. see IPCC, 2018) highlight the importance of this technology for deep decarbonisation.

Table 3 Key progress indicators across alternative peaking and net-zero year combinations in ‘with’ and ’without CCS’ scenarios

The critical variables discussed in earlier sections provide an overview of one of the most important challenges for the transition as a result of economic growth. Table 3 presents what this would mean across sectors. Clearly, the effort required is very high in scenarios with an early peak and a rapid decline. The table shows that availability, or absence, of CCS would define the shape of India’s energy systems, regardless of the choice of peaking and net-zero year. While there is progress on this technology, it is far from satisfactory. If this technology is not commercially available, India will have to largely get out of fossils in and beyond the net-zero year. Some fossil energy use (<5% in PE) could continue as it would be offset by bioenergy crops, which would act as a carbon sink. The share of other technologies like solar and liquid biofuels, and electrification of end-use sectors, would have to grow significantly in the absence of CCS. Electrification of industries as well as freight transport would have to happen much faster as oil and coal use would have to be phased out in the absence of CCS. Biofuels would have to play an important role, with or without CCS, although lack of availability of CCS would imply an even higher use of biofuels in India’s oil supply chain. Costs of hydrogen produced from renewable sources would have to fall drastically in the next decade for it to play an important role in the net-zero future. India might not have enough land to grow bio-energy crops, which has been a concern. But in the future net-zero world, liquid biofuel would be imported by India like oil is imported today. In such a scenario, biomass-rich regions like Brazil could replace the role of West Asia as the suppliers of liquid fuels.

Although the role of sustainable lifestyles has become crucial in the transition debate, rapid technological advances as described above need to be made to address the challenge of decarbonisation. However, this challenge must not ignore the reality of climate change.

Delaying a peak in emissions would have a larger impact on climate change. Hence, it is critical that India does not wait until 2050 to peak its emissions. Postponing peaking and net-zero years will increase India’s climate impact, which needs to be minimised to the largest extent possible. Table 4 presents the estimates of India’s cumulative emissions to help us understand the comparative climate impact of these alternative scenarios.

Table 4 Cumulative emissions impact of alternative peaking and net-zero year combinations

While scenarios A and B are the most suitable from a climate change mitigation viewpoint, India can choose these scenarios only if substantial financial and technological support are available from other developed countries. However, given experience, this seems challenging. In contrast, postponing the peaking year until 2050 would be highly damaging from a climate perspective. To compare the above estimations of cumulative carbon emissions across various peaking and net-zero year combinations for India with other regions, the 2021–2100 cumulative emissions based on their net-zero ambition would be 349 GtCO2 for China, 69 GtCO2 for the EU, and 104 GtCO2 for the US. When historical emissions are included in the comparison, India’s numbers pale in comparison to China, the EU, and the US. Of course, if economic growth turned out to be lower and the cost of mitigation technologies declined faster than anticipated, Indian policymakers, industrial leaders, and consumers could harness the opportunity and aim to achieve net-zero as early as possible. There would be some important economic tradeoffs that India would have to deal with on the path towards achieving a net-zero year. Some benefits are clear. A decisive shift towards a ‘net-zero’ economy provides an opportunity to pivot economic growth around green infrastructure creation. Be it generation and transmission infrastructure for non-fossil energy sources, or an even larger electricity system for rapid electrification of various end-use sectors. Early shift would ensure avoidance of lock-ins. There would, however, be some trade-offs as well:

Electricity prices for households would increase: The cross-subsidy based electricity pricing regime has to be dropped for a rapid electrification of industrial energy use. This would mean household electricity prices would have to be increased. In absence of this, government’s budgetary burden could increase significantly as the financial viability of distribution companies will be further hit.

Railways passenger tariff would increase: Coal freight is significant for the revenues of Indian Railways IR). A net-zero India means that the IR would lose this significant source of revenue, forcing it to either raise revenue through freight or passenger sources. Freight charges are already high in order to subsidise passenger fares. In all likelihood, millions of passengers dependent on subsidised railway charges would face increasing prices to compensate for the loss of revenues from transporting coal.

Coal-dependent states would face fiscal challenges: Some states in India, particularly in the eastern belt such as Odisha and Jharkhand, generate a sizeable source of their state government revenue from the energy sector. Going out of fossils, specifically coal, would mean that these states not just think about a new economic development paradigm drastically different from their current economic approach, but are well onto that pathway by 2050.

Coal sector jobs would be lost: Over half a million coal mining workers would have to be provided with alternative gainful employment opportunities commensurate with their skills or retrained for work in other related energy sectors or be given severance packages in the event of shut down of this sector. Coal India Ltd. would have to wind down operations, at least in its current avatar.

Geopolitics would shift: A net-zero target would also bring about a dramatic shift in the geopolitics of energy. India could start importing biofuels from Southeast Asia or South America, which are rich in water resources. This will break transform existing energy relationships, such as with West Asia, and create new opportunities as well as tensions. The reliance on critical minerals, which are used in clean energy and clean mobility sectors, would also grow.

Along with economic growth and the economic trade-offs presented above, there are four critical considerations in choosing peaking and net-zero years. First is the duration between a peaking and a net-zero year. In general, countries take at least 30–40 years to transition from a peak to a net-zero year (Table 2). This pace of transition appears to be manageable. Several underlying societal factors need to be adjusted to ensure a smooth and equitable transition. Second is the cumulative emissions associated with each peaking and net-zero year combination. A delay in peaking, generally speaking, does imply an increase in the cumulative emissions between the peaking and net-zero year. Third is the possibility of stranded assets. The greater the delay, the higher the possibility of long-term lock-ins and stranded assets in the future, as well as higher cumulative emissions. The fourth is the availability of an economically viable mitigation technology set, particularly biomass, carbon capture and storage (bio-CCS) and/or green hydrogen. The larger the portfolio available for mitigation, lesser is the over-reliance on one or two key technology options. As shown in table 3, CCS gives an option to continue with fossils to some extent. Bio-CCS gives an option to emit in some sectors, which are ‘netted’ through negative emissions from the bio-CCS technology.

Climate change impacts are pushing policymakers toward meaningful near-term actions to reduce emissions. Some large countries have announced their ambition to achieve net-zero economies in the future. This provides a critical and clear policy signal for actors to rally around and increase the pace of transition. India is an influential nation in the climate change debate, and the world keenly awaits its decision on net-zero.

This brief presents a simple analytical formulation to better understand the challenges associated with alternative combinations of peaking and net-zero years for India. First, it highlights that for a rapidly developing economy, the choice of peaking year is implicit in the selection of a net-zero year; hence, it is important to assess peaking year to inform the decision-makers who will be impacted by the transition.

The analytical formulation shows that the ‘effort gap’ is significantly impacted by the economic growth rate. For India, peaking in 2030 would be very challenging given the expected economic growth rates for at least the next two decades. With such growth rates, the rate of fuel shift toward non-fossil energy and decrease in primary energy intensity of GDP needs to be much faster compared to other countries like China, which are going to peak when their economies are much larger and their economic growth rates are comparatively much lower.

In summary, the rate of expected GDP growth would make it very challenging for India to have an early peak, and it needs a much faster transition in terms of fuel shift across sectors in the economy compared to countries that are expected to have a lower GDP growth rate in the next few decades, such as China. These shifts need a step-change in how India’s demand and supply sectors operate and, hence, would have significant near- and long-term costs. While a near-term transition from peak to net-zero presents opportunities for a green infrastructure driven economic growth agenda, it would also present many critical trade-offs amplified by the rapid pace of required transition towards a net-zero world for a low-income yet rapidly growing economy. It is important to recognise the trade-offs so that appropriate domestic measures can be taken. Moreover, this would require active support for India’s transition from and in collaboration with advanced economies in terms of financial invesments and technology transfer/ co-development. India needs to invest in technologies that can reduce energy intensity and emission intensity, and would need international support in order to pursue more aggressive route to decarbonisation. Clearly, India will need to do more than its fair share for the world to achieve the “well below 2 degrees Celsius” target.

The key considerations for selecting peaking and netzero years should be per capita income, economic growth rate, a ‘reasonable’ pace of transition determined by the gap between peaking and net-zero years, possibility of lock-ins and stranded assets, and the cumulative emissions across the alternative peaking year–net-zero year combinations. The chosen combination should provide India sufficient time to develop and ensure that the climate impact is minimised. It is clear that the transition towards decarbonisation that is already underway needs to be accelerated urgently to ensure the bending of emissions curve below the BAU trajectory. An ambitious decarbonisation plan should not be ruled out; however, it would not be possible without significant and steady financial and technical support from the developed world.

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TERI charts India’s path to net zero by 2070 with new conceptual framework

New Delhi, May 20, 2024: In a significant step toward achieving India's net zero target by 2070, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) presented a discussion study entitled ‘India’s Journey to Net Zero: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis’.

Expert-led study highlights key strategies and sectoral triggers for decarbonizing major emitting sectors, emphasizing economic growth decoupling from carbon emissions

During the session, TERI unveiled a conceptual framework that qualitatively identifies the main carbon-emitting sectors in India, such as electricity, transport, industry, agriculture, and residential cooking. The study assumes India would become a developed nation soon and per capita carbon emissions would reach the level of advanced economies. The emissions would reach a peak and follow a decline trajectory. The study focuses on importance of decoupling India’s growth with carbon emissions. With India’s vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047, the study is crucial and assesses the pathways and studies that would be required for India’s low carbon trajectory.

Mr Nitin Desai, Chairman, TERI , commented on the significance of the session, stating, “In many ways, focus has been decoupling the growth in supply from carbon emissions. He also reiterated the focus to decouple demand side growth from carbon emissions. With a rise in emissions, for example, heat in urban areas would lead to more cooling requirements. Redesigning buildings so that they do not require as much cooling as they would require today. Reducing demand for transportation would also lead to emission reductions. Therefore, reducing carbon emissions from demand side would also lead to reduction in carbon emissions.”

Dr Vibha Dhawan, Director General, TERI , highlighted the need for more in-depth research following the initial findings. “This study provides a simplified macro view of the transition to net zero. It is now time to undertake more rigorous sectoral analysis, including detailed modelling, scenario generation with cost implications, and projections of alternative pathways down the cost curve.” Dr Dhawan mentioned that the intent is to begin dialogues on what is required to achieve to net zero and she invited stakeholders for their valuable inputs and suggestions.

The event also featured insights from Mr Ajay Shankar, Distinguished Fellow, TERI , who led the commissioning of the study. He outlined the initial exercises that chart a pathway for emissions to peak and then decline, marking crucial steps toward decoupling economic growth from increases in carbon emissions. The paper suggests that peaking of emissions from electricity sector would be feasible at no additional cost. Reduction of emissions from electricity generation would have a cost. This cost would be lower, the sooner emissions peak. Transport and cooking can switch to electricity with cost reduction. As emissions from electricity reach zero and all transport becomes green, about 55% of our present emissions would get eliminated.

India's proactive approach, including the launch of the National Hydrogen Mission, is expected to significantly contribute to the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors and reinforce India's status as a responsible leader in global climate action. Pilot projects in the hard-to-abate sector would be key to reaching net zero emissions.

In the concluding remarks, Mr Girish Sethi, Programme Director, TERI , emphasized the role of non-state actors including corporate sector to reach to net zero. He mentioned the Industry Charter for Near zero emission ambition by 2050 instituted by TERI. The corporate sector would also play a key role for India’s net zero target and technology innovation and policy instruments would be required for transition, he emphasized.

The discussion concluded by emphasizing that while the path to net zero is challenging, the collective effort of all stakeholders will be pivotal in navigating this complex journey. This framework proposes key strategies for each sector and calls for detailed studies to develop feasible pathways for achieving net zero emissions. The central theme of the discussion emphasized the urgent need to dissociate carbon emission growth from economic growth to ensure sustainable development.

The session was hosted as a part of TERI’s 50-year celebrations.

The link to the report: Discussion paper on India’s Journey to Net Zero: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis | TERI (teriin.org)

Watch proceedings here: https://youtu.be/f-tYB_uGchk

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India's GHG Emissions Surge: Transition To EVs Critical For 2070 Net-Zero Goals India accounted for 7 per cent of the total Green House Gas emissions in CY22, clocking 3.5 billion metric tons of CO_emissions.

By Entrepreneur Staff Aug 23, 2024

You're reading Entrepreneur India, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media.

The Global warming has significantly impacted Earth's ecosystem and society, leaving a lasting impact that poses greater challenges for future generations. According to the report by Praxis Global Alliance, India is experiencing an upward trajectory in annual Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, with a projected CAGR of 3.6 per cent for the period of Calendar Year (CY)20-30.

In CY22, the transport sector emitted 340M metric tons of GHG emissions, with road transport constituting 80 per cent of this total. The transport sector is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR for GHG emissions, projected to grow at a rate of 5.1 per cent for the same period, reaching 510M metric tons by CY30.

There are several factors that make the transition to clean EVs in India crucial, including increased global temperature that has risen by 1.5 degree Celsius, India being the third largest GHG emitter in the world after China and the USA and many other.

According to the report, India accounted for 7 per cent of the total GHG emissions in CY22, clocking 3.5 billion metric tons of CO_emissions.

While claiming that EVs are truly driving GHG emissions reduction, it is important to look at the facts at the first principles. One must look at the entire carbon footprint of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles vs EV across the lifecycle, from production, usage (of both, the vehicle, and the fuel) as well as recycling.

The adoption of EVs can play a pivotal role in achieving the above goals, as EVs emit 25-50 per cent fewer GHGs compared to ICE vehicles across all segments on a lifecycle basis. Even if a nation drives electricity production through fossil fuels, independent power producers (IPPs) and large-scale energy generation units are much more efficient than smaller engines at a vehicle level.

With lower emissions during production and zero direct combustion release during usage, EVs are crucial for mitigating the environmental damage already done.

Amidst the global push for cleaner energy and sustainability, several nations globally have committed to clean targets. India aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, while nations like Australia, the USA, and the Netherlands are pledging to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Dinesh Arjun, Co founder and CEO, Raptee had earlier said that EVs significantly reduce GHG compared to conventional vehicles, directly addressing climate change.

"India's long-term low-carbon development strategy underscores the need for an integrated, efficient, and inclusive transport system to achieve net zero by 2070. Given that transportation is the fastest-growing major contributor to global climate change, accounting for 23 per cent of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions," he added.

As one of the leading global contributors to GHG emissions, there is an urgent need for action to curb environmental impact and confront the escalating climate crisis. The transport sector, which accounts for a substantial portion of these emissions, underscores the pivotal necessity of transitioning to cleaner modes of transportation, the report said.

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India’s clean energy transition is rapidly underway, benefiting the entire world

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IEA (2022), India’s clean energy transition is rapidly underway, benefiting the entire world , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/commentaries/india-s-clean-energy-transition-is-rapidly-underway-benefiting-the-entire-world

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This commentary was first published by The Times of India .

India’s announcement that it aims to reach net zero emissions by 2070 and to meet fifty percent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030 is a hugely significant moment for the global fight against climate change. India is pioneering a new model of economic development that could avoid the carbon-intensive approaches that many countries have pursued in the past – and provide a blueprint for other developing economies.

The scale of transformation in India is stunning. Its economic growth has been among the highest in the world over the past two decades, lifting of millions of people out of poverty. Every year, India adds a city the size of London to its urban population, involving vast construction of new buildings, factories and transportation networks. Coal and oil have so far served as bedrocks of India’s industrial growth and modernisation, giving a rising number of Indian people access to modern energy services. This includes adding new electricity connections for 50 million citizens each year over the past decade. 

The rapid growth in fossil energy consumption has also meant India’s annual CO 2 emissions have risen to become the third highest in the world. However, India’s CO 2 emissions per person put it near the bottom of the world’s emitters, and they are lower still if you consider historical emissions per person. The same is true of energy consumption: the average household in India consumes a tenth as much electricity as the average household in the United States.  

India’s sheer size and its huge scope for growth means that its energy demand is set to grow by more than that of any other country in the coming decades. In a pathway to net zero emissions by 2070, we estimate that most of the growth in energy demand this decade would already have to be met with low-carbon energy sources. It therefore makes sense that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced more ambitious targets for 2030, including installing 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, reducing the emissions intensity of its economy by 45%, and reducing a billion tonnes of CO 2 . 

These targets are formidable, but the good news is that the clean energy transition in India is already well underway. It has overachieved its commitment made at COP 21- Paris Summit by already meeting 40% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuels- almost nine years ahead of its commitment and the share of solar and wind in India’s energy mix have grown phenomenally. Owing to technological developments, steady policy support and a vibrant private sector solar power plants are cheaper to build than coal ones. Renewable electricity is growing at a faster rate in India than any other major economy, with new capacity additions on track to double by 2026. The country is also one of the world’s largest producers of modern bioenergy and has big ambitions to scale up its use across the economy. The IEA expects India to overtake Canada and China in the next few years to become the third largest ethanol market worldwide after the United States and Brazil. 

However, even as it sets its sights on net zero, India faces a number of pressing near-term challenges. The sharp increase in commodity prices has made energy less affordable, and tight markets are increasing energy security risks for the world’s third largest energy importer. There is still a lack of reliable electricity supply for many consumers. Continued reliance on traditional fuels for cooking causes unnecessary harm to many people’s health. Financially ailing electricity distribution companies are impeding the urgent transformation of the sector. And high levels of pollution have left Indian cities with some of the poorest air quality in the world.

India already has a numerous policy measures in place that – if fully implemented – could address some of these challenges by accelerating the shift to cleaner and more efficient technologies. Subsidies for petrol and diesel were removed in the early 2010s, and subsidies for electric vehicles were introduced in 2019. India’s robust energy efficiency programme has been successful in reducing energy use and emissions from buildings, transport and major industries. Government efforts to provide millions of households with fuel gas for cooking and heating are enabling a steady transition away from the use of traditional biomass such as burning wood. India is also laying the groundwork to scale up important emerging technologies such as hydrogen, battery storage, and low-carbon steel, cement and fertilisers. 

A transition to clean energy is a huge economic opportunity. India is particularly well placed to become a global leader in renewable batteries and green hydrogen. These and other low-carbon technologies could create a market worth up to $80 billion in India by 2030. Support from the international community is essential to help shift India’s development onto a low-carbon path. To reach net zero emissions by 2070, the IEA estimates that $160 billion per year is needed, on average, across India’s energy economy between now and 2030. That’s three times today’s investment levels. Therefore, access of low cost long term capital is key to achieve net zero. 

Achieving net zero is not just about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. India’s energy transition needs to benefit its citizens, and well-designed policies can limit the potential trade-offs between affordability, security and sustainability. Green hydrogen will play a major role in achieving the net zero and decarbonising the hard-to-abate sectors. India aims to become a global hub for green hydrogen production and exports. India could easily create 5 million tonne green hydrogen demand thereby replacing grey hydrogen in the refineries and fertiliser sector. This 5 million tonnes will result in abatement of 28 million tonnes of CO 2 . This proportion will grow as we fructify green hydrogen economy and will result in 400 million tonnes of CO 2 abatement by 2050.

As a large developing economy with over 1.3 billion people, India’s climate adaptation and mitigation ambitions are not just transformational for India but for the entire planet. NITI Aayog and IEA are committed to work together to enable India to grow, industrialize and provide a better quality of life to its citizens without the need to carbonize.

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What Does "Net-Zero Emissions" Mean? 8 Common Questions, Answered

• climate science
• carbon removal
• Paris Agreement
• climate policy
• greenhouse gases

Editor's Note: This article was updated in March 2023 to include WRI’s latest research and information about new national net-zero targets.

The latest  climate science  is clear: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) is still possible. But to avoid the worst climate impacts, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to  drop by nearly half by 2030  and ultimately reach net zero.

Recognizing this urgency, a rapidly growing number of national governments, local governments and business leaders are making commitments to reach net-zero emissions within their jurisdictions or businesses. To date,  over 90 countries  have communicated such “net-zero targets,” including the world’s largest emitters (China, the United States and India). On top of that, hundreds more regions, cities and companies have set targets of their own.

But what does a net-zero target mean, what’s the science behind net zero and which countries have already made such commitments? Here are answers to eight common questions:

1. What Does Net-Zero Emissions Mean?

Net-zero emissions, or “net zero,” will be achieved when all emissions released by human activities are counterbalanced by removing carbon from the atmosphere in a process known as  carbon removal .

Achieving net zero will require a two-part approach: First and foremost, human-caused emissions (such as those from fossil-fueled vehicles and factories) should be reduced as close to zero as possible. Any remaining emissions should then be balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal, which can happen through natural approaches like restoring forests or through technologies like  direct air capture and storage  (DACS), which scrubs carbon directly from the atmosphere.

2. When Does the World Need to Reach Net-Zero Emissions?

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit warming to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), ideally to  1.5 degrees C  (2.7 degrees F). Global climate impacts that are already unfolding under the current  1.1 degrees C  (1.98 degrees F) of warming — from melting ice to devastating heat waves and more intense storms — show the urgency of minimizing temperature increase.

The  latest science  suggests that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C depends on CO2 emissions reaching net zero between 2050 and 2060.  Reaching net zero earlier in that range (closer to 2050) avoids a risk of temporarily "overshooting," or exceeding 1.5 degrees C. Reaching net zero later (nearer to 2060) almost guarantees surpassing 1.5 degrees C for some time before global temperature can be reduced back to safer limits through carbon removal.

Critically, the sooner  emissions peak , and the lower they are at that point, the more realistic achieving net zero becomes. This would also create less reliance on carbon removal in the second half of the century.

This does not suggest that all countries need to reach net-zero emissions at the same time. However, the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C depend significantly on how soon the highest emitters reach net zero. Equity-related considerations — including responsibility for past emissions, equality in per-capita emissions and capacity to act — also suggest earlier dates for wealthier, higher-emitting countries.

Importantly, the time frame for reaching net-zero emissions is different for CO2 alone versus for CO2 plus other greenhouse gases like methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. For non-CO2 emissions, the net zero date is later, in part because models assume that some of these emissions — such as methane from agricultural sources — are more difficult to phase out. However, these potent but short-lived gases will  drive temperatures higher  in the near term, potentially pushing temperature change past the 1.5 degrees C threshold much earlier.

Because of this, it's important for countries to specify whether their net-zero targets cover CO2 only or all GHGs. A comprehensive net-zero emissions target would include all GHGs, ensuring that non-CO2 gases are also reduced with urgency.

3. Is the World on Track to Reach Net-Zero Emissions on Time?

No — despite the enormous benefits of climate action to date, progress is happening far too slowly for the world to hold temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). The UN finds  that climate policies currently in place point to a 2.8 degrees C temperature rise by the end of the century.

4. What Needs to Happen to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions?

To achieve net-zero emissions, rapid transformation will be required across all global systems — from how we power our economies, to how we transport people and goods and feed a growing population.

For example, in pathways to 1.5 degrees C, zero-carbon sources will need to supply  98%-100% of electricity by 2050 . Energy efficiency and fuel-switching measures are critical for reducing emissions from transportation. Improving the efficiency of food production, changing dietary choices,  restoring degraded lands  and reducing food loss and waste  also have significant potential  to reduce emissions.

Additionally, action must be taken to reverse course in cases where change is at a standstill or headed in the wrong direction entirely. For instance , efforts to phase out unabated coal remain well off-track and must decline six times faster by 2030. The world also needs to halt deforestation and increase tree cover gain two times faster by 2030.

It is critical that the structural and economic transition toward net zero is approached in a just manner , especially for workers tied to high-carbon industries. Indeed, the costs and benefits of transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy must be distributed equitably.

The good news is that most of the technologies needed to unlock net zero are already available and increasingly cost-competitive with high-carbon alternatives. Solar and wind now provide the  cheapest power  available for most of the world. Markets are waking up to these opportunities and to the risks of a high-carbon economy, and they are shifting accordingly.

Investments in carbon removal techniques are also necessary. The different pathways assessed by the IPCC to achieve 1.5 degrees C  all rely on carbon removal to some extent . Removing CO2 from the atmosphere will compensate for emissions from sectors in which reaching net-zero emissions is more difficult, such as aviation.

5. How Many Countries Have Set Net-Zero Targets?

Global momentum for setting net-zero targets is growing quickly, with key economies like China, the United States, India and the European Union articulating such commitments. Bhutan was the first country to set a net-zero target in 2015. Now over 90 countries, representing nearly 80% of global emissions, are covered by a net-zero target.

Climate Watch’s  Net-Zero Tracker  shows how these targets were set, such as through nationally determined contributions (NDCs), long-term low GHG emissions development strategies (long-term strategies), domestic laws, policies, or high-level political pledges from heads of state or other cabinet members. The tracker also includes information on the scope of national net-zero targets, providing details about the GHGs and sectors covered by each, the extent to which the target relies on international offsets and more.

6. Does the Paris Agreement Commit Countries to Achieving Net-Zero Emissions?

In short, yes. Specifically, the Paris Agreement sets a  long-term goal  of achieving "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty." This concept of balancing emissions and removals is akin to reaching net-zero emissions.

The  Glasgow Climate Pact , signed at COP26 and marking the five-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, also emphasized the importance of setting ambitious net zero goals. The pact urges countries to move “towards just transitions to net zero emissions by or around midcentury, taking into account different national circumstances.”  To this end, it encourages parties “that have not yet done so to communicate…long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” that set the country on a pathway toward net zero. The shift from “in the second half of this century” to “by or around mid-century” reflects a notable increase in perceived urgency.

7. Why and How Should Countries Align Their Near-term Emissions Reduction Targets with Longer-term Net-Zero Goals?

Countries typically set net-zero targets for around 2050 — nearly three decades from now. However, to ensure that the world gets on the right track toward reaching net zero, those long-term objectives must guide and inform near-term action today. This will help avoid  locking in  carbon-intensive, non-resilient infrastructure and technologies. Countries can also cut near- and long-term costs by investing in green infrastructure that will not need to be phased out later, designing consistent policies and sending strong signals to the private sector to invest in climate action.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to submit climate plans every five years, known as  nationally determined contributions (NDCs ). NDCs, which currently target 2030, are an important tool to align near- and long-term emissions reduction goals. When informed by a country’s long-term vision, these documents can help governments implement the policies necessary today to realize an ambitious mid-century objective.

Many countries with net-zero targets are beginning to incorporate them directly into their NDCs, particularly now that the Glasgow Climate Pact “notes the importance of aligning nationally determined contributions with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies.”

8. Are Net-Zero Targets a Form of Greenwashing?

Not necessarily, but they can be if used as an excuse to not take bold climate action in the near term.

Although net-zero targets continue to gain traction with governments and companies, skeptical voices have emerged, from  academic journals  to  Greta Thunberg’s speech  in Davos. Critiques of net-zero targets include:

The “net” aspect of net-zero targets could dampen efforts to rapidly cut emissions.

Critics are concerned that this could foster an overreliance on carbon removal, allowing decision-makers to use net-zero targets to avoid emission reductions in the near term. Decision-makers can address this concern by setting ambitious gross reduction targets (targets that do not rely on removals) alongside their longer-term net reduction targets.

Some countries’ net-zero targets rely on purchasing emissions reductions, delaying reductions within their own boundaries.

Some countries are setting net-zero targets that rely on carbon offsetting, which involves investing in or paying for emissions reductions from other countries to use toward their own targets. There’s concern that government leaders might use this strategy to avoid reducing their own emissions in the long term. Decision-makers can address this concern by setting deep emission reduction targets that explicitly avoid or limit using offsets to achieve their goals.

WRI’s experts are closely following the UN climate talks. Watch our  Resource Hub  for new articles, research, webinars and more.

The time horizon for net-zero targets — typically 2050 — feels distant.

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Towards Achieving Net Zero Emissions in India by 2070

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Problem regarding climate is one of the biggest problems which we are facing at present. In 2015, 194 parties adopted the Paris Agreement to limit the warming of Earth’s surface to not more than 1.5 °C and to achieve the net zero globe by 2050 which means cutting the emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane to zero. India has set the target to reduce the emission intensity by 45% by 2030 and to achieve the net zero emission by 2070. India ranks third in carbon emissions in the world. The total carbon dioxide emissions in India in 2021 were around 2.8 billion tonnes. In 2022, these emissions saw an increase by 6%. Net zero would be possible in India by promotion of more and more non-fossil fuel sources instead of burning fossil fuels like coal and oil for the production of electricity and also by increasing deployment and integration of renewable sources in the sector of electricity production and transportation along with increase in production of green hydrogen. 100% renewables pathway can represent the truly decarbonized energy system. Globally, solar PV is needed to provide almost 70% of all primary energy by 2050 which means the solar capacity of 57.6 TW by 2050, and in the case of India, it is estimated that India should have 5630 GW of solar PV to achieve the target of net zero by 2070. To meet the target of net zero, there is requirement of large investments and strong policy framework in the nation.

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Strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

Climate change is a global collective action problem which is primarily caused by not only the current Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions but also by the historical cumulative GHG emissions mainly contributed by developed countries. Even though India’s per capita GHG emission is minimal, India is committed to addressing the challenge with firm adherence to multilateralism keeping in mind the national circumstances and based on equity and the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), as enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developed countries have to take lead in reducing their GHG emissions and by providing finance, technology and capacity building support to developing countries.

India, at the 26 th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in November 2021, announced its target to achieve net zero by 2070. In pursuance thereof, India formulated and submitted its Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) to the UNFCCC in November 2022, which reaffirms the goal of reaching net-zero by 2070. India’s approach is based on the following four key considerations that underpin its long-term low-carbon development strategy:

• India has contributed little to global warming:   India’s historical contribution to cumulative global GHG emissions is 4% despite having a share of ~17% of the world’s population between 1850 and 2019 data.
• India has significant energy needs for its development: India’s annual primary energy consumption per capita in 2019 was 28.7 gigajoules (GJ), considerably lower than both developed and developing country peers.
• India is committed to pursuing low-carbon strategies for development and is actively pursuing them, as per national circumstances: India seeks to identify and explore opportunities to shift to low-carbon development pathways, while ensuring adequate access to household energy, energy security, and energy for the development of all sectors of the economy.
• India needs to build climate resilience: India has a diverse geography that encompasses a wide range of ecosystems, from mountains to deserts, from inland to coastal areas, and from plains to forests, and is vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Adaptation measures and building resilience to potential climate impacts are necessary to maintain India’s development gains and human development outcomes and sustain its growth and development.

India’s LT-LEDS involves seven key strategic transitions, namely: (i) Low carbon development of electricity systems consistent with development; (ii) Developing an integrated, efficient, inclusive low-carbon transport system; (iii) Promoting adaptation in urban design, energy and material-efficiency in buildings, and sustainable urbanisation; (iv) Promoting economy-wide decoupling of growth from emissions and development of an efficient, innovative low-emission industrial system; (v) CO 2 removal and related engineering solutions; (vi) Enhancing Forest and vegetation cover consistent with socio-economic and ecological considerations; and (vii) Economic and financial aspects of low-carbon development and Long-Term Transition to Net-Zero by 2070.

The economic, technical and political feasibility of Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) is highly uncertain. At present, retrofitting of existing thermal power generating units for CCUS implementation is not a viable option, until the technology is cost effective and less energy intensive. India requires considerable climate finance and technology transfer with effective international collaboration to implement CCUS on any significant scale. Transitioning to renewable energy generation is an important component of the LT-LEDS strategy. However, looking to the variability in generation of solar and wind power and its intermittent nature, round the clock energy storage system is also required. Pumped Storage Projects (PSP) and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are the major types of storage technologies available in the country.

As per the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),  ‘carbon leakage’ occurs when mitigation measures implemented in one country/sector leads to increased emissions in other countries/sectors. Global commodity value chains and associated international transport are important mechanisms through which carbon leakage occurs. To address this issue, developed countries need to drastically reduce their consumption of resources and adopt climate friendly lifestyles. ‘Mission LiFE’ launched by India in 2022 seeks to channelise  the efforts of individuals and communities into a global mass movement of positive behavioural change leading to change in demand and consequent change in policies to bring about paradigm shift from mindless and destructive consumption to mindful and deliberate utilisation of resources. It calls for a People’s movement involving the Government as well as the private sector and above all public at large. It is relevant to mention that India has revised its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) by including, “to put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for ‘LIFE’– ‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as a key to combating climate change” as one of the goals.

This information was given by the Minister of State for Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Shri Kirti Vardhan Singh in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha today.

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It’s possible to reach net-zero carbon emissions. here’s how.

Cutting carbon dioxide emissions to curb climate change is possible but not easy

Curbing climate change means getting more electricity from renewable sources, such as wind power.

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By Alexandra Witze

January 27, 2023 at 7:00 am

Patricia Hidalgo-Gonzalez saw the future of energy on a broiling-hot day last September.

An email alert hit her inbox from the San Diego Gas & Electric Company. “Extreme heat straining the grid,” read the message, which was also pinged as a text to 27 million people. “Save energy to help avoid power interruptions.”

It worked. People cut their energy use. Demand plunged, blackouts were avoided and California successfully weathered a crisis exacerbated by climate change. “It was very exciting to see,” says Hidalgo-Gonzalez, an electrical engineer at the University of California, San Diego who studies renewable energy and the power grid.

This kind of collective societal response, in which we reshape how we interact with the systems that provide us energy, will be crucial as we figure out how to live on a changing planet.

Earth has warmed at least 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 19th century, when the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels began belching heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Scientists agree that only drastic action to cut emissions can keep the planet from blasting past 1.5 degrees of warming — a threshold beyond which the consequences become even more catastrophic than the rising sea levels, extreme weather and other impacts the world is already experiencing.

The goal is to achieve what’s known as net-zero emissions, where any greenhouse gases still entering the atmosphere are balanced by those being removed — and to do it as soon as we can.

Scientists say it is possible to swiftly transform the ways we produce and consume energy. To show the way forward, researchers have set out paths toward a world where human activities generate little to no carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases — a decarbonized economy.

The key to a decarbonized future lies in producing vast amounts of new electricity from sources that emit little to none of the gases, such as wind, solar and hydropower, and then transforming as much of our lives and our industries as possible to run off those sources. Clean electricity needs to power not only the planet’s current energy use but also the increased demands of a growing global population.

Once humankind has switched nearly entirely to clean electricity, we will also have to counter­balance the carbon dioxide we still emit — yes, we will still emit some — by pulling an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and storing it somewhere permanently.

Achieving net-zero emissions won’t be easy. Getting to effective and meaningful action on climate change requires overcoming decades of inertia and denial about the scope and magnitude of the problem. Nations are falling well short of existing pledges to reduce emissions, and global warming remains on track to charge past 1.5 degrees perhaps even by the end of this decade.

Yet there is hope. The rate of growth in CO 2 emissions is slowing globally — down from 3 percent annual growth in the 2000s to half a percent annual growth in the last decade, according to the Global Carbon Project , which quantifies greenhouse gas emissions.

There are signs annual emissions could start shrinking. And over the last two years, the United States, by far the biggest cumulative contributor to global warming, has passed several pieces of federal legislation that include financial incentives to accelerate the transition to clean energy. “We’ve never seen anything at this scale,” says Erin Mayfield, an energy researcher at Dartmouth College.

Though the energy transition will require many new technologies, such as innovative ways to permanently remove carbon from the atmosphere, many of the solutions, such as wind and solar power, are in hand — “stuff we already have,” Mayfield says.

How to hit net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

In a 2021 report, the International Energy Agency described the steps necessary to ensure that by 2050 the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere globally balances the amount being taken out. This chart shows how carbon dioxide emissions would have to drop across sectors to bring planetwide emissions from roughly 34 billion metric tons annually to net-zero.  

The current state of carbon dioxide emissions

Of all the emissions that need to be slashed, the most important is carbon dioxide, which comes from many sources such as cars and trucks and coal-burning power plants. The gas accounted for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. The next most significant greenhouse gas, at 11 percent of emissions in the United States, is methane, which comes from oil and gas operations as well as livestock, landfills and other land uses.

The amount of methane may seem small, but it is mighty — over the short term, methane is more than 80 times as efficient at trapping heat as carbon dioxide is, and methane’s atmospheric levels have nearly tripled in the last two centuries. Other greenhouse gases include nitrous oxides, which come from sources such as applying fertilizer to crops or burning fuels and account for 7 percent of U.S. emissions, and human-made fluorinated gases such as hydrofluorocarbons that account for 3 percent.

Globally, emissions are dominated by large nations that produce lots of energy. The United States alone emits around 5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide each year. It is responsible for most of the greenhouse gas emissions throughout history and ceded the spot for top annual emitter to China only in the mid-2000s. India ranks third.

Because of the United States’ role in producing most of the carbon pollution to date, many researchers and advocates argue that it has the moral responsibility to take the global lead on cutting emissions. And the United States has the most ambitious goals of the major emitters, at least on paper. President Joe Biden has said the country is aiming to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Leaders in China and India have set net-zero goals of 2060 and 2070, respectively.

Under the auspices of a 2015 international climate change treaty known as the Paris agreement, 193 nations plus the European Union have pledged to reduce their emissions. The agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees, and ideally to 1.5 degrees, above preindustrial levels. But it is insufficient. Even if all countries cut their emissions as much as they have promised under the Paris agreement, the world would likely blow past 2 degrees of warming before the end of this century. 

Every nation continues to find its own path forward. “At the end of the day, all the solutions are going to be country-specific,” says Sha Yu, an earth scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland’s Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, Md. “There’s not a universal fix.”

But there are some common themes for how to accomplish this energy transition — ways to focus our efforts on the things that will matter most. These are efforts that go beyond individual consumer choices such as whether to fly less or eat less meat. They instead penetrate every aspect of how society produces and consumes energy.

Such massive changes will need to overcome a lot of resistance, including from companies that make money off old forms of energy as well as politicians and lobbyists. But if society can make these changes, it will rank as one of humanity’s greatest accomplishments. We will have tackled a problem of our own making and conquered it.

Here’s a look at what we’ll need to do.

Make as much clean electricity as possible

To meet the need for energy without putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, countries would need to dramatically scale up the amount of clean energy they produce. Fortunately, most of that energy would be generated by technologies we already have — renewable sources of energy including wind and solar power.

“Renewables, far and wide, are the key pillar in any net-zero scenario,” says Mayfield, who worked on an influential 2021 report from Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project , which focused on the U.S. economy.

The Princeton report envisions wind and solar power production roughly quadrupling by 2030 to get the United States to net-zero emissions by 2050. That would mean building many new solar and wind farms, so many that in the most ambitious scenario, wind turbines would cover an area the size of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma combined.

How much solar and wind power would we need?

Achieving net-zero would require a dramatic increase in solar and wind power in the United States. These maps show the footprint of existing solar and wind infrastructure in the contiguous United States (as of 2020) and a possible footprint for a midrange scenario for 2050. Gray shows population density of 100 people per square kilometer or greater.

Such a scale-up is only possible because prices to produce renewable energy have plunged. The cost of wind power has dropped nearly 70 percent, and solar power nearly 90 percent, over the last decade in the United States. “That was a game changer that I don’t know if some people were expecting,” Hidalgo-Gonzalez says.

Globally the price drop in renewables has allowed growth to surge; China, for instance, installed a record 55 gigawatts of solar power capacity in 2021, for a total of 306 gigawatts or nearly 13 percent of the nation’s installed capacity to generate electricity. China is almost certain to have had another record year for solar power installations in 2022.

Challenges include figuring out ways to store and transmit all that extra electricity, and finding locations to build wind and solar power installations that are acceptable to local communities. Other types of low-carbon power, such as hydropower and nuclear power, which comes with its own public resistance, will also likely play a role going forward.

More renewable electricity globally

Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind and hydropower, account for a larger share of global electricity generation today than they did in 2015. The International Energy Agency expects that trend to continue, projecting that renewables will top 38 percent in 2027.

Get efficient and go electric

The drive toward net-zero emissions also requires boosting energy efficiency across industries and electrifying as many aspects of modern life as possible, such as transportation and home heating.

Some industries are already shifting to more efficient methods of production, such as steelmaking in China that incorporates hydrogen-based furnaces that are much cleaner than coal-fired ones, Yu says. In India, simply closing down the most inefficient coal-burning power plants provides the most bang for the buck, says Shayak Sengupta, an energy and policy expert at the Observer Research Foundation America think tank in Washington, D.C. “The list has been made up,” he says, of the plants that should close first, “and that’s been happening.”

To achieve net-zero, the United States would need to increase its share of electric heat pumps, which heat houses much more cleanly than gas- or oil-fired appliances, from around 10 percent in 2020 to as much as 80 percent by 2050, according to the Princeton report. Federal subsidies for these sorts of appliances are rolling out in 2023 as part of the new Inflation Reduction Act , legislation that contains a number of climate-related provisions.

Shifting cars and other vehicles away from burning gasoline to running off of electricity would also lead to significant emissions cuts. In a major 2021 report , the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine said that one of the most important moves in decarbonizing the U.S. economy would be having electric vehicles account for half of all new vehicle sales by 2030. That’s not impossible; electric car sales accounted for nearly 6 percent of new sales in the United States in 2022, which is still a low number but nearly double the previous year .

Make clean fuels

Some industries such as manufacturing and transportation can’t be fully electrified using current technologies — battery powered airplanes, for instance, will probably never be feasible for long-duration flights. Technologies that still require liquid fuels will need to switch from gas, oil and other fossil fuels to low-carbon or zero-carbon fuels.

One major player will be fuels extracted from plants and other biomass, which take up carbon dioxide as they grow and emit it when they die, making them essentially carbon neutral over their lifetime. To create biofuels, farmers grow crops, and others process the harvest in conversion facilities into fuels such as hydrogen. Hydrogen, in turn, can be substituted for more carbon-intensive substances in various industrial processes such as making plastics and fertilizers — and maybe even as fuel for airplanes someday.

In one of the Princeton team’s scenarios, the U.S. Midwest and Southeast would become peppered with biomass conversion plants by 2050, so that fuels can be processed close to where crops are grown. Many of the biomass feedstocks could potentially grow alongside food crops or replace other, nonfood crops.

Solar and wind power trends in the United States

The amount of electricity generated from wind and solar power in the United States has surged in the last decade. The boost was made possible in large part by drops in the costs of producing that energy.

Cut methane and other non-CO 2 emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions other than carbon dioxide will also need to be slashed. In the United States, the majority of methane emissions come from livestock, landfills and other agricultural sources, as well as scattered sources such as forest fires and wetlands. But about one-third of U.S. methane emissions come from oil, gas and coal operations. These may be some of the first places that regulators can target for cleanup, especially “super emitters” that can be pinpointed using satellites and other types of remote sensing .

In 2021, the United States and the European Union unveiled what became a global methane pledge endorsed by 150 countries to reduce emissions. There is, however, no enforcement of it yet. And China, the world’s largest methane emitter, has not signed on.

Nitrous oxides could be reduced by improving soil management techniques, and fluorinated gases by finding alternatives and improving production and recycling efforts.

Sop up as much CO 2 as possible

Once emissions have been cut as much as possible, reaching net-zero will mean removing and storing an equivalent amount of carbon to what society still emits.

One solution already in use is to capture carbon dioxide produced at power plants and other industrial facilities and store it permanently somewhere, such as deep underground. Globally there are around 35 such operations, which collectively draw down around 45 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. About 200 new plants are on the drawing board to be operating by the end of this decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Princeton report envisions carbon capture being added to almost every kind of U.S. industrial plant, from cement production to biomass conversion. Much of the carbon dioxide would be liquefied and piped along more than 100,000 kilometers of new pipelines to deep geologic storage, primarily along the Texas Gulf Coast, where underground reservoirs can be used to trap it permanently. This would be a massive infrastructure effort. Building this pipeline network could cost up to $230 billion, including $13 billion for early buy-in from local communities and permitting alone.

Another way to sop up carbon is to get forests and soils to take up more. That could be accomplished by converting crops that are relatively carbon-intensive, such as corn to be used in ethanol, to energy-rich grasses that can be used for more efficient biofuels, or by turning some cropland or pastures back into forest. It’s even possible to sprinkle crushed rock onto croplands, which accelerates natural weathering processes that suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Another way to increase the amount of carbon stored in the land is to reduce the amount of the Amazon rainforest that is cut down each year. “For a few countries like Brazil, preventing deforestation will be the first thing you can do,” Yu says.

When it comes to climate change, there’s no time to waste

The Princeton team estimates that the United States would need to invest at least an additional $2.5 trillion over the next 10 years for the country to have a shot at achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Congress has begun ramping up funding with two large pieces of federal legislation it passed in 2021 and 2022. Those steer more than $1 trillion toward modernizing major parts of the nation’s economy over a decade — including investing in the energy transition to help fight climate change.

Between now and 2030, solar and wind power, plus increasing energy efficiency, can deliver about half of the emissions reductions needed for this decade, the International Energy Agency estimates. After that, the primary drivers would need to be increasing electrification, carbon capture and storage, and clean fuels such as hydrogen.

The trick is to do all of this without making people’s lives worse. Developing nations need to be able to supply energy for their economies to develop. Communities whose jobs relied on fossil fuels need to have new economic opportunities.

Julia Haggerty, a geographer at Montana State University in Bozeman who studies communities that are dependent on natural resources, says that those who have money and other resources to support the transition will weather the change better than those who are under-resourced now. “At the landscape of states and regions, it just remains incredibly uneven,” she says.

The ongoing energy transition also faces unanticipated shocks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy prices soaring in Europe, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially slashed global emissions but later saw them rebound.

But the technologies exist for us to wean our lives off fossil fuels. And we have the inventiveness to develop more as needed. Transforming how we produce and use energy, as rapidly as possible, is a tremendous challenge — but one that we can meet head-on. For Mayfield, getting to net-zero by 2050 is a realistic goal for the United States. “I think it’s possible,” she says. “But it doesn’t mean there’s not a lot more work to be done.”

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Net zero by 2070: E-mobility transition pathway for India

7 February 2022, 11:29 UTC 4 min read

Anuja Jadaun

India's net zero goal for 2070 clearly indicates the intent to pursue decarbonisation by committing an economy to a 1 billion tonne reduction in projected carbon emissions by 2030. While this provides a clear path for India to follow, the inter-sectoral contributions of states, industry and businesses will be critical in achieving this goal.

One of the primary sources of emissions in India is the transportation industry. To meet the net zero target, India must make this sector its priority. Without immediate electrification of vehicle fleets, transport-related emissions would skyrocket by 2050, playing a compelling part in accelerating climate change. To develop an EV ecosystem in India, critical interventions such as the following, are the need of the hour,

• Charging infrastructure for corporate parks and national highways
• Renewable energy powered EV charging
• Medium and long-haul freight along with the electrification of last-mile deliveries

Governments in action: Increasing policy support

The Indian government has set the stage to rapidly scale electric mobility adoption in the country. Purchase discounts across several vehicle segments, reduced road taxes, scrapping and retrofit incentives are a smart mix to encourage achieving the goal of 30% EVs by 2030. India's recent policies to accelerate the transition to e-mobility are motivated by the burden of oil imports, rising pollution and its global commitments to address climate change.

1.  Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME II) – Demand incentives

As of November 2021, around 160,000 EVs had been incentivised under FAME II through demand incentives of 75 million USD. The incentive scheme has approved 6,300+ e-buses, 2,870+ EV charging stations in 68 cities, and 1,576 charging stations on nine expressways and 16 highways. It has the potential to accelerate the uptake of electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers and e-buses across the country.

2.  Production-linked incentive (PLI) Scheme

In May 2021, a 2.4 billion USD PLI scheme for Advanced chemistry cell (ACC) storage manufacturing was announced by the Indian government to establish a local manufacturing capacity of 50-gigawatt hours (GWh) of ACC and 5 GWh of ‘niche’ ACC capacity. This would minimise reliance on imports, build capacity and localise the EV supply chain. Major Indian businesses including Reliance, Hyundai, Ola and M&M have shown an overwhelming response by bidding for about 130 GWh.

Furthermore ,   in September 2021, the central government authorised  3.4 billion USD for auto and auto components to stimulate the manufacture of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

3.  State EV policies

Several states have introduced EV-specific policies. On the supply-side, incentives include:

• Capital interest subsidy
• Stamp duty reimbursements
• Tax exemptions
• States goods and services tax (SGST) reimbursement
• Provision of interest-free loans to incentivise EV manufacturers

On the demand side, there are monetary incentives, road tax and registration fee exemption.

The Delhi and Maharashtra governments have announced policies to accelerate the adoption of EVs. By 2024, 25% of all new vehicle registrations are to be accounted for by EVs in Delhi. And in the case of Maharashtra, 10% of all new vehicle registrations will be EVs by 2025.

Businesses leading the way: Ambition and action

Many incumbent automotive lead-acid battery manufacturers, such as Amara Raja Batteries, and Exide are leading in directing new investments into green technologies, including lithium-ion batteries. Business leaders like OLA Electric, Ather Energy and Mahindra Electric are rapidly expanding their market presence in response to the opportunity presented by India's EV industry.

• Ather Energy aims to produce 1 million electric scooters a year as demand soars
• Ola “Future Factory” invested 2 billion USD to manufacture 10 million electric scooters per year
• Tata Motors has a newly formed EV subsidiary TPEML, to manufacture, design and develop services related to EVs
• Hero Electric has partnered with Mahindra Group to build over 1 million electric two-wheelers per year

Furthermore, EV100 members , committed to 100% EV transition by 2030, are leading on the demand side.

• Flipkart has partnered with Hero Electric, Mahindra Electric and Piaggio to accelerate the transition to EVs in the last-mile delivery space
• Dalmia Cement launched its e-trucks initiative, with plans to deploy 22 electric trucks in 2022
• JSW Group has a new EV policy to facilitate incentives up to 300,000 USD for employees to purchase electric four-wheelers or electric two-wheelers

While government and businesses now recognise the massive upside to adopting EVs, yet more needs to be done to accelerate a faster transition to EVs in India. The Indian corporate sector has a critical role to play in driving demand and adoption of clean transport. They are also in an advantageous position to inspire new business models, effectively revolutionising dated systems.

Initiatives like EV100 are advancing the frontiers to create a facilitative environment to transition to e-mobility by raising EV demand, influencing policy and pushing mainstream adoption to make electric transport the new normal by 2030. As India's electricity grid gets greener and new solutions to procure clean electricity emerge, the emissions reduction potential of EVs will improve even further.

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Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and Carbon Capture on Transportation Electrification for a Net-Zero Western U.S. Grid

• Acharya, Samrat
• Ghosal, Malini
• Thurber, Travis
• Zhang, Ying
• Burleyson, Casey D.
• Voisin, Nathalie

The electrification of transportation is critical to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The United States (U.S.) government's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduces policies to promote the electrification of transportation. In addition to electrifying transportation, clean energy technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may play a major role in achieving a net-zero energy system. Utilizing scenarios simulated by the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we analyze the individual and compound contributions of the IRA and CCS to reach a clean U.S. grid by 2035 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. We analyze the contributions based on three metrics: i) transportation electrification rate, ii) transportation fuel mix, and iii) spatio-temporal charging loads. Our findings indicate that the IRA significantly accelerates transportation electrification in the near-term (until 2035). In contrast, CCS technologies, by enabling the continued use of internal combustion vehicles while still advancing torward net-zero, potentially suppresses the rate of transportation electrification in the long-term. This study underscores how policy and technology innovation can interact and sensitivity studies with different combination are essential to characterize the potential contributions of each to the transportation electrification.

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India's Climate Change Initiatives Under Paris Agreement

Niti aayog is spearheading india's climate change mitigation efforts under the paris agreement. the country aims to reduce emission intensity by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels and achieve 50% electric power capacity from non-fossil-based resources. key players discussed pathways for india's net-zero 2070 target and the important role of carbon capture utilization and storage (ccus)..

India is firmly on course to achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, according to NITI Aayog member V K Saraswat. Speaking at a two-day workshop, Saraswat emphasized the country's commitment to mitigating climate change.

The workshop, organized by NITI Aayog, focused on 'Legal & Regulatory Frameworks and Technical Considerations for Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS)'. NDCs, as outlined in the Paris Agreement 2015, are crucial efforts by countries to cut national emissions and adapt to climate change.

India's NDC includes a target to reduce emission intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels and achieve 50% of electric power installed capacity from non-fossil resources. NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Suman Bery highlighted ongoing efforts for India's Net-Zero 2070 target, which considers growth, employment, and environmental sustainability.

(With inputs from agencies.)

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Ccus perspectives: assessing historical contexts, current realities, and future prospects.

1. Background and Significance of CCUS

1.1. co 2 as a key target in global warming menace, 1.2. scope and objectives, 2. overview of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (ccus), 2.1. future prospects and strategic directions in ccus, 2.2. harnessing ccus potential in emerging markets, current underground injection control (uic) class vi permit applications, 3. ccus pathways and technological advancement, 3.1. carbon capture and separation technologies, 3.1.1. industrial process, 3.1.2. post combustion, 3.1.3. pre-combustion, 3.1.4. oxy-fuel combustion, 3.1.5. chemical looping combustion (clc), 3.1.6. direct air capture.

Click here to enlarge figure

3.2. Separation Technologies

3.2.1. absorption, 3.2.2. adsorption, 3.2.3. membrane separation, 3.2.4. cryogenic separation, 3.2.5. biological separation, 3.3. transportation of captured co 2, 3.4. carbon capture and utilization (ccu) pathways, 4. carbon storage technologies (ccs pathways), 4.1. geological storage, 4.1.1. co 2 —eor with storage, 4.1.2. ccs in depleted oil and gas reservoirs (dogr), 4.1.3. saline aquifers, 4.1.4. co 2 -enhanced coalbed methane (ecbm), 4.2. co 2 mineralization, 4.3. oceanic storage.

5. Policy and Regulatory Framework

5.1. national and international policies, 5.2. incentive and funding mechanisms, 5.3. regulatory challenges and opportunities, 6. economic viability and market trends, 6.1. cost analysis of ccus technologies, 6.1.1. cost components of ccus technologies, 6.1.2. economic and policy implications, 6.2. market trends and investment outlook, 6.2.1. market trends in ccus, 6.2.2. investment patterns in ccus, 6.2.3. future outlook for ccus, 6.3. economic barriers and potential solutions, 6.3.1. economic barriers to ccus, 6.3.2. potential solutions to economic barriers, 7. environmental impacts and sustainability, 7.1. assessment of environmental benefits and risks, 7.1.1. environmental benefits of ccus, 7.1.2. environmental risks of ccus, 7.2. how green is ccus: life cycle analysis of ccus technologies, 7.2.1. life cycle assessment of ccs.

7.2.2. Environmental Impact Assessment of Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU)

7.3. socioeconomic and sustainability considerations, 7.3.1. job creation, 7.3.2. energy security, 7.3.3. public acceptance, 8. case studies and pilot projects, 8.1. overview of prominent ccus projects worldwide, summary of u.s. department of energy (doe) sponsored projects, 8.2. lessons learned from successful and unsuccessful projects, 8.2.1. success factors, 8.2.2. challenges and failures, 8.3. implications for future deployment, 9. research gaps and future directions of ccus, 10. conclusions, author contributions, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest, appendix a. summary of ccus projects worldwide.

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Ampomah, W.; Morgan, A.; Koranteng, D.O.; Nyamekye, W.I. CCUS Perspectives: Assessing Historical Contexts, Current Realities, and Future Prospects. Energies 2024 , 17 , 4248. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174248

Ampomah W, Morgan A, Koranteng DO, Nyamekye WI. CCUS Perspectives: Assessing Historical Contexts, Current Realities, and Future Prospects. Energies . 2024; 17(17):4248. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174248

Ampomah, William, Anthony Morgan, Desmond Ofori Koranteng, and Warden Ivan Nyamekye. 2024. "CCUS Perspectives: Assessing Historical Contexts, Current Realities, and Future Prospects" Energies 17, no. 17: 4248. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174248

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