essay on power and politics in nepal

Political Instability And Uncertainty Loom Large In Nepal

By  gaurab shumsher thapa.

• February 16, 2021

This article was originally published in South Asian Voices.

Nepal’s domestic politics have been undergoing a turbulent and significant shift. On December 20, 2020, at the recommendation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari  dissolved  the House of Representatives, calling for snap elections in April and May 2021. Oli’s move was a result of a serious internal rift within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) that threatened to depose him from power. Opposition parties and other civil society stakeholders have condemned the move as unconstitutional and several writs have been  filed  against the move at the Supreme Court (SC) with hearings underway. Massive  protests  have taken place condemning the prime minister’s move. If the SC reinstates the parliament, Oli is in course to lose the moral authority to govern and could be subject to a vote of no-confidence. If the SC validates his move, it is unclear if he would be able to return to power with a majority.

The formation of a strong government after decades of political instability was expected to lead to a socioeconomic transformation of Nepal. Regardless of the SC’s decision, the country is likely to see an escalation of political tensions in the days ahead. The internal rift that led to the December parliamentary dissolution and the political dimensions of the current predicament along with the domestic and geopolitical implications of internal political instability will lead to a serious and long-term weakening of Nepal’s democratic fabric.

Power Sharing and Legitimacy in the NCP

Differences between NCP chairs Oli and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal have largely premised on a power-sharing arrangement, leading to a vertical division in the party. In the December 2017 parliamentary elections, a coalition between the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist or UML) and the Dahal-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center or MC)  won  nearly two-thirds of the seats. In May 2018, both parties merged to  form  the NCP. However, internal politics weakened this merger. While both the factions claim to represent the authentic party, the Election Commission has sought clarifications from both factions before deciding on the matter. According to the  Political Party Act , the faction that can substantiate its claim by providing signatures of at least 40 percent of its central committee members is eligible to get recognized as the official party. The faction that is officially recognized will get the privilege of retaining the party and election symbol, while the unrecognized faction will have to register as a new party which can hamper its future electoral prospects. A faction led by Dahal and former Prime Minister Madahav Kumar Nepal, was planning to initiate a vote of no-confidence motion against Oli but, sensing an imminent threat to his position, Oli decided to motion for the dissolution of the parliament.

Internal Party Dynamics

Several internal political dynamics have led to the current state of turmoil within the NCP. Dahal has accused Oli of disregarding the power-sharing arrangement agreed upon during the formation of NCP according to which Oli was  supposed  to hand over either the premiership or the executive chairmanship of the party to Dahal. In September 2020, both the leaders reached an  agreement  under which Oli would serve the remainder of his term as prime minister and Dahal would act as the executive chair of the party. Yet, Oli  failed  to demonstrate any intention to relinquish either post, increasing friction within the party. Additionally, Oli made unilateral appointments to several cabinet and government positions, further consolidating his individual authority over the newly formed NCP. He also  sidelined  the senior leader of the NCP and former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, leading Nepal to side with Dahal over Oli. Consequently, Oli chose to dissolve the parliament and seek a fresh mandate rather than face a vote of no-confidence. Importantly, party unity between the Marxist-Leninist CPN (UML) and the Maoist CPN (MC) did not lead to expected ideological unification.

Domestic Politics and Geopolitics

Geopolitical factors and external actors have historically impacted Nepal’s domestic political landscape. Recently, in a bid to cement his authority over the NCP, Oli has attempted to improve ties with India—lately strained due to Nepal’s  inclusion  of disputed territories in its new political map—resulting in recent  high-level visits  from both countries. India has also  provided  Nepal with one million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as part of its vaccine diplomacy efforts in the region. However, while India has previously  interfered  in Nepal’s  domestic politics , it has described the current power struggle as an “ internal matter ” to prevent backlash from Nepali policymakers and to avoid a potential spillover of political unrest.

However, India’s traditionally dominant influence in Nepal has been challenged by China’s ascendancy in recent years. Due to  fears  of Tibetans potentially using Nepal’s soil to conduct anti-China activities, China considers Nepal important to its national security strategy. Beijing has traditionally maintained a non-interventionist approach to foreign policy; however, this approach is gradually changing as is evident from the Chinese ambassador to Nepal’s  proactive efforts  to  address  current crises within the NCP. Nepal’s media  speculates  that China is in favor of keeping the NCP intact as the ideological affinity between the NCP and the Communist Party of China could help China exert its political and economic influence over Nepal.

Although China is aware of India’s traditionally influential role in Nepal, it is also  skeptical  of growing U.S. interest in the Himalayan state; especially considering Oli’s push for parliamentary approval of the USD $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant assistance from the United States to finance the construction of electrical transmission lines in Nepal. In contrast, Dahal has opposed the MCC and has described it as part of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain China. Given Nepal is a signatory to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing might prefer development projects under the BRI framework and could lobby the Nepali government to delay or reject U.S.-led projects.

Implications for Future Governance

After the political  changes  of 2006 which ended Nepal’s decade-long armed conflict, it was expected that political stability would usher in economic development to the country. Moreover, a strong majority government under Oli raised hopes of achieving modernization. Sadly, ruling party leaders have instead engaged in a bitter power struggle, and government  corruption scandals  have undermined trust in the administration.

Amidst the current turmoil within the NCP, the main opposition party, Nepali Congress (NC), is hoping that an NCP division will raise its prospects of coming to power in the future. Although the NC has  denounced  Oli’s move for snap elections as unconstitutional, it has also stated that it will not shy away from elections if the SC decides to dissolve the lower house. Sensing increasing instability, several royalist parties and groups have accused the government of  corruption  and protested on the streets for the reinstatement of the Hindu state and constitutional monarchy to reinvent and stabilize Nepal’s image and identity.

The last parliamentary elections had provided a  mandate  of five years for the NCP to govern the country. However, Oli  decided  to seek a fresh mandate, claiming that the Dahal-Nepal faction obstructed the smooth functioning of the government. Unfortunately, domestic political instability has resurfaced as the result of an internal personality rift within the party. This worsening democratic situation will not benefit either India or China—both want to circumvent potential spillover effects. Even if the SC validates Oli’s move, elections in April are not confirmed. If elections were not held within six months from the date of dissolution, a constitutional crisis could occur. If the Supreme Court overturns Oli’s decision, he could lose his position as both the prime minister and the NCP chair. Regardless of the outcome, Nepali politics is bound to face deepening uncertainty in the days ahead.

This article was originally published in  South Asian Voices.

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Instability only constant in Nepali politics

Meena Bhatta

Plot twister events are synonymous with Nepali politics. In a surprising turn, the 15-month-long partnership between the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and the Nepali Congress (NC) headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal collapsed. A new coalition government was formed, yet again, under his premiership. Prachanda has also expanded the Council of Ministers to 20 members, including three Home Ministers. However, the government will have to test the floor within a month, which looks challenging.

The new coalition has four political parties on board, the Maoist Centre, the CPN-UML, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP). With this, PM Dahal has changed the shoulder of power twice since in position. Earlier, he became premier with the support of UML after betraying the then-electoral alliance. Some predictable incidents occurred in Nepali politics, resulting in the current fate.

Mistrust between the ruling congress and the Maoist Centre had been brewing for quite some time. Dahal wanted to replace some ministers due to the question in their performance, to which, according to Dahal, Deuba paid no heed. The rift between them had further extended over the Chair of the National Assembly. Dahal had plans to appoint his party's member to the key post, which could not materialise. In addition, in the Mahasamiti (General Assembly) meeting of the Nepali Congress, the NC leaders passed a proposal not to form electoral alliances. A political document presented in the meeting about Maoist insurgency and its negative repercussions on the country’s economy fueled the fire.

Making and breaking political coalitions have become a norm in Nepali politics, resulting in political instability, fragmentation and unstable governments and governance. Governments formed since 2008 have followed suit. No coalition governments have stood intact for the entire term. Yet, there has always been reshuffling of the same cards to bring out the same person, making no effort to address the looming economic crisis and governance issues. So, why has coalition politics repeatedly failed in Nepal and who is to blame for the collapse? In this regard, we analyse a few factors here.

Coalitions for power

With the formation of every coalition government, the question that hovers over is not how the coalition will run the country and what its development agendas will be but calculations of how long the coalition will last. Such discussions have already surfaced over the formation of a new four-party alliance as well. Having said this, it would be no wrong to say that homework for the collapse of a coalition is carried out from the very day of its formation.

Political leaders start ploughing plots to quench their thirst to remain in power at any cost, putting the basic political culture and the essence of the coalition at the helm. The idea of survival in politics at the behest of power is deeply ingrained in every political leader in Nepal. The so-called alternative forces also fall into the same category. The newly formed alliance is already in hot soup as it was finding it hard to strike a power-sharing deal to distribute the key ministerial portfolios. This squabble over ministerial portfolios extended to the newbies, including the RSP and Janamat Party, which makes the so-called alternative force no different than the conventional political actors.

This common chase of power between the old and the new substantiates a famous saying in Nepali, Jun jogi aye ni kanai chireko, thus marring basic political morality and dharma. The aftershocks of this change have also started reaching the provinces, and the formation of a new government in some provinces is complicated as the current alliance comprising CPN-Maoist, CPN-UML, RSP and JSP lacks representation in all provinces. No doubt, such internal mismanagement also makes fertile ground for geopolitical manoeuvring.

Build coalition culture

The literal meaning of coalition is to grow together. A coalition government should represent diverse perspectives and address the grievances of diverse strata of society as well as entail tolerance, flexibility, cooperation and collaboration. Nepal’s coalition politics is no closer to this culture of ‘growing together’ and ‘coming together’ for the good of the nation. Coalition partners in Nepal seem to have no standard policy and programme, as the partnership is just to fulfil their vested interest in power. For a sound coalition, political parties must agree on a boundary that they will not cross while agreeing to form a coalition. Over everything else, they should be honest, and for the sustainability of coalitions, the political forces must ally only on the planks of the nation’s betterment.

Another essential element of a lasting partnership is building trust and communication among coalition members and across the broader political spectrum. It would also be necessary to be mindful of how responsibilities are divided among coalition members. If this does not go right, the coalition could develop hidden enemies within itself. This is perhaps one of the reasons why cracks develop in the Nepali government.

Nepal is currently in a complex vortex of deepening economic crisis; its bulging youth population is migrating en masse in search of work opportunities, while people are dying in countries like Russia and Ukraine, the country neither has an idea of the significant number of Nepalis serving in Ukraine and Russian military nor has any plans for compensation to the families of deceased. Conversely, the leaders have sidelined all these issues and are busy bargaining for power. We are in a situation of constant political instability and unpredictability. It is high time political parties develop a modicum of political culture and come together for the nation’s development and better governance.

Meena Bhatta Bhatta is a faculty member at the Department of Conflict, Peace and Development Studies at Tribhuvan University.

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Constitutional and Political Developments in Nepal and the Challenges in the Implementation of the New Constitution

By Professor Surya P. Subedi, QC

It was in 1768, when King Prithivi Narayan Shah conquered the city of Kathmandu and its surrounding areas, the newly unified territory called ‘Nepal’ was formed. Post-unification, Nepal was predominately ruled by monarchy. Later, a local warrior caste called the Rana’s, usurped state power from the monarchy and took control of Nepal till 1951. Subsequently, power was restored to the monarchy under King Tribhuvan and his son and grandson continued his legacy effectively as executive monarchs until 1990 under an indigenous system of governance known as party less panchayat system. However, the people’s movement in 1989/90 led to the restoration of parliamentary system of government and a constitutional monarchy under a new Constitution.

The fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War and the collapse of Communism taking place around the same time had a tremendous impact on the people of Nepal. The year 1990 was a colourful chapter in Nepal’s history. The 1990 Constitution was the cornerstone for the development of constitutionalism and for restoration of democratic values and norms. Most importantly it established Nepal as constitutional monarchy. Unfortunately, the aspirations of the political movement were not fulfilled.

Only a few years after the establishment of a multi-party democracy, a small ultra-leftist party, calling itself the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), began a brutal armed rebellion against the state in five districts of the mid-and far-west. These districts were underdeveloped and isolated from the capital. Inspired by a similar guerrilla war in Peru called the ‘Shining Path,’ the Maoist Party labelled its campaign ‘People’s War’. The Maoists began their campaign by strategically targeting state apparatus such as police stations and government offices.

Today, the factors behind the Maoist-led insurgency are better known. Back then however, the Maoist’s campaign bedevilled scholars and civil society. Over the decade-long insurgency, Nepal witnessed several violations and abuse by both the government security forces and the Maoists. Extra-judicial killings were recorded throughout the country. At the height of the insurgency, in June 2001, nine members of Nepal’s royal family, including the King and Queen, were killed in a tragic murder-suicide apparently committed by the Crown Prince. This episode was the beginning of the end of monarchy in Nepal. After the death of King Birendra and his immediate heirs, King Birendra’s younger brother Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah became the new king. For the new king, his sudden ascension to the throne and the ongoing Maoist insurgency provided a political opportunity to consolidate power. He deployed the Royal Nepal Army against the Maoists, a step that his older brother had pointedly refused to do. The use of the national army against the Maoists turned the insurgency into a full-fledged civil war. He next used provision of the Constitution and declared a ‘state of emergency’ in Nepal to suspend all political rights and freedoms.

The absolutist and authoritarian rule of the King united the political parties. Facing a common political enemy in King Gyanendra, these political parties first formed an alliance among themselves (Seven-Party Alliance – SPA), and then united with the still-underground Maoist Party to launch another people’s movement against the King’s rule. The overwhelming response from the people in favour of the movement forced the King to surrender his powers to the leaders of the political parties. A Comprehensive Peace Accord was signed between the SPA and the Maoist, which brought the Maoist Party into the political mainstream.

The main objective of the agreement between the Maoists and other political parties was to hold fresh elections to elect a constituent assembly to write a permanent constitution for the country. The purpose of a new permanent constitution was aimed at restructuring the system of governance within the country and allowing equal access to power for people of all traditionally marginalised ethnic, religious and racial groups in this highly stratified traditional society, and to eliminate discrimination against them. Thus, when the election for the constituent assembly took place in April 2008 and the monarchy was abolished a month later by the Assembly, Nepal had completed one of the important phases of political transition.

However, due to the lack of consensus amongst the major political parties on some key issues such as the criteria for the new federal structure of the country and the form of governance, the Constituent Assembly was not able to agree on a new constitution. After four years of its existence the Assembly was dissolved in May 2012, as the Supreme Court of the country ruled that the Assembly could not go on indefinitely in a state of political stalemate since it had initially been elected with a two-year mandate in 2008. A second constituent assembly election was conducted in 2013. Again, the drafting process dragged on for almost two years. But the massive April 2015 earthquake pressured the political parties to draft and pass a constitution, which was promulgated in September 2015. It established Nepal as a republic, made the country secular, and adopted a federal structure. Even though the constitution was passed by 90 percent of votes in Parliament, a few political parties walked out of the process and protested the constitution for not being inclusive enough or not embracing a fully-fledged federalism.

The task ahead in implement ting the new constitution look daunting. The Madhesh based political parties and some ethnic or janajati groups are demanding a major amendment to the constitution to make the federal structure more meaningful and more autonomous. However, the country is in the process of implementing the new constitution and a first round of local elections under the new constitution have taken place. The second round of local elections, then state or provincial level elections and finally national elections for parliament are scheduled to take place within this year after which the country will have completed the political process that began with the abolition of monarchy and declaration of Nepal as a federal democratic republic. Going by the way the first round of local elections that took place in May 2017, democracy seems to be maturing in Nepal.

If the country achieves political stability it is poised to take off in terms of its economic development. There is now a ray of hope for the people in this ancient country stricken by one after another man-made and nature-made tragedy in its recent history. The system of governance is now more inclusive and people are free to speak their mind and exercise and assert their rights. A kind of social renaissance seems to be underway in the country. But the road ahead in implementing the new constitution is not going to be smooth. It will require statesmanship on the part of the political leaders, accommodation of competing interests and tolerance and above all a faith in the rule of law and respect for human rights.

Traditionally, a new constitution is needed in a country following a major political upheaval in the country whether it is after gaining independence from colonial rule (e.g.in India) or a successful revolution (e.g. the Bolshevik revolution in Russia) or break up of a federal state resulting in the creation of many independent states (e.g. the former USSR or Yugoslavia), or a major change of the political system (e.g. South Africa after apartheid). But Nepal’s Maoist insurgency was not a successful revolution by any measure. Nevertheless, the abolition of the monarchy was a major event and the country needed a new constitution to embrace a republican system of government and accommodate some of the provisions in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement concluded with the Maoists.

The challenges ahead for Nepal is to institutionalise the changes that have taken place in the political landscape of the country and make them work in the interests of the people belonging to all sections of the population. The challenges include (1) ushering the country towards a new era of economic development through political stability (2) ensuring inclusivity in all aspects of governance (3) managing identity politics (4) addressing the concerns of the Madheshi political parties (5) decentralising power and (6) addressing the issues of transitional justice. Since the new constitution opted for a parliamentary system of governance, observers wonder whether it will bring about political stability given the diversity within Nepal in terms of ethnicity, race, religion, caste and creed of all kinds. Critics have also pointed out the weak or inadequate provisions in the constitution on transitional justice.

However, there are many positive aspects of political and constitutional changes in the country. To begin with, Nepal is one of those rare countries which abolished the monarchy in a peaceful manner. King Gyanendra left the royal palace in a dignified manner after holding a press conference to announce his departure from the palace. Second, Nepal’s peace process has been an indigenous one in which the internal political actors took ownership of the process. This has not been the case in many countries around the globe and Cambodia is an example where the UN needed a heavy involvement to manage the peace process.

The new constitution was the result of a compromise between the major political parties. It was written and adopted by a two-thirds majority of the constituent assembly elected by the people. It is based on democratic principles, the rule of law, respect for human rights, judicial independence, separation of power and the checks and balances between the major organs of the state (i.e. the judiciary, the executive and the legislature). It includes provisions for inclusivity and proportional or equitable representation in governance of the country at all levels and access to the resources and services offered by the State. It has one of the most progressive provisions in terms of women’s participation in power and the representation of the traditionally marginalised groups such as the Dalits of Nepal.

In conclusion, the political and constitutional progress in Nepal thus far is looking encouraging. Nepal has a great deal to offer to the outside world. A well-managed tourism sector alone can generate a great deal of revenue needed to support the people. Development of water resources for the benefit not only of Nepal but also for the population of India and Bangladesh is a real possibility. Time and again, the people of Nepal have demonstrated how resilient they are and they have demonstrated their maturity in exercising their democratic rights. In sum, Nepal has many ingredients already in place that are needed to develop its economy. If the new constitution enables the people to elect to power relatively clean, efficient and democratic government led by visionary people that can provide political stability, it should not take long for Nepal to gain the status of a middle-income country. If all the political actors adopt a liberated mindset and embrace tolerance, plurality and accommodate competing interests in the political structure and process in the country, Nepal stands to transform herself very quickly as a forward-looking nation aiming to achieve both sustainable and equitable economic development underpinned by the values of democracy and the rule of law.

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In Nepal, Post-Election Politicking Takes Precedence Over Governance

The latest bout of coalition politics glosses over the country’s troubling drift toward further political instability.

By: Deborah Healy;  Sneha Moktan

Publication Type: Analysis

This past November, Nepalis participated in the second federal and provincial election since its current constitution came into effect in 2015. With 61 percent voter turnout , notably 10 percent lower than the 2017 general elections, the polls featured a strong showing from independent candidates.

Almost half of the incumbent members of parliament — even former premiers, cabinet ministers and party leaders — lost their seats to independents or new political rivals. Amid the political instability that has wracked Nepal over the past several years, including a near constitutional crisis in 2021, the electorate appeared to be holding political leaders accountable at the ballot box for putting politicking above governing. 

A Surprising Coalition in Parliament

However, what followed election day has dampened hopes for political reform or renewal. Spurred by public resentment toward the established parties, no single party or existing coalition secured a parliamentary majority. Most expected that the outgoing government, led by the Nepali Congress party, would form a new majority following a brief period of negotiation. However, talks between the Nepali Congress’ outgoing Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, leader of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), broke down when the two failed to agree on who would hold the post of prime minister.

After talks with the Nepali Congress ended, Dahal, who is often known by his nom-de-guerre “Prachanda” from his time leading insurgent forces during Nepal’s decade-long civil war from 1996-2006, swiftly brokered a new alliance with his sometime rival, sometime ally KP Sharma Oli and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). The two men agreed they would rotate the prime minister’s office between them, with Prachanda serving as prime minister first. With this agreement in hand, Prachanda was sworn in as prime minister on December 26.

Two weeks later, Prachanda was constitutionally obligated to face parliament for a confidence vote. In a surprising reversal, the Nepali Congress and other parties in the opposition announced that they, too, would support the new governing coalition — giving Prachanda a unanimous vote of confidence.

Some analysts suggest this was an attempt by the Nepali Congress to undermine Prachanda’s alliance from the outset by giving Prachanda and the CPN-MC a back-up coalition partner-in-waiting should their pact with the CPN-UML fall through. This would weaken Oli and the CPN-UML’s negotiating power in the new government. The move also dilutes parliamentary checks and balances and calls into question the opposition’s ability to independently scrutinize the actions of a prime minister and government that it helped put in place.

The unanimous vote of confidence creates issues for Prachanda as well, as he must now manage a multi-party coalition representing a spectrum from Marxists to monarchists. Meanwhile, Nepali citizens once again are frustrated and disappointed to see a government formed by parties that have lost a significant number of electoral seats acquire the lion’s share of cabinet positions.

Ongoing Struggle to Implement Federalism

Nepal’s political theme for the last decade has been precarity, and this latest political theater comes amid some worrying trends. Governments rarely run full terms and politicians have played musical chairs with political appointments. Meanwhile, closed-door power-grabs have undermined the electorate’s will. In the seven years since Nepal became a federal state, any initial optimism for the success of federalism has largely waned.

In 2021, only 32 percent of Nepalese said they were satisfied with provincial governments, and chief ministers have complained about the federal government’s reluctance to implement federalism. Provincial assemblies have received limited funding, resources and capacity building support to enable them to be an effective tier of government.

With the outcomes of the 2022 general elections, federalism will continue to face challenges. The governing coalition’s inclusion of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which served as an umbrella party for the election’s independent candidates, will likely disrupt decisions affecting provincial governments. The RSP are anti-federalism — they did not field any candidates for the provincial government elections, and there were incidents on election day where their supporters visibly rejected Provincial Assembly ballot papers.

With such divergent views within the government, it remains to be seen whether provincial governments will get the support they need to provide effective governance or whether federalism will be able to plant stronger roots in the governance system of Nepal.

Walking a Geopolitical Tightrope

Nepal is wedged between China and India, meaning the country must maintain a delicate balancing act to keep amiable relationships with both powers. While the “left-leaning” parties such as CPN-UML and CPN-MC, who have traditionally been seen as being close to China, seek to strengthen those ties, Nepal has deep historical, cultural and religious ties to India.

However, in recent years, the relationship between Nepal and India has at times been fractious — especially when communist parties have occupied the prime minister's office in Nepal and the right-leaning Modi has occupied the prime minister's office in Delhi.

When Nepal was reeling from devastating earthquakes in 2015, there was an unofficial Indian blockade at the border later that year, which soured India-Nepal relations and saw Oli look to Beijing for support. And in 2019-2020, nationalistic sentiment both in Delhi and Kathmandu — when Oli was prime minister — came to the fore over disputed territories along the border, with both governments re-drawing the demarcations set out in the Sugauli Treaty of 1816. 

While accusations of foreign interference in domestic politics have increased over recent years, the domestic political flux has actually made it difficult for foreign powers to negotiate, influence or broker power dynamics in a sustained manner. With fluid alliances and an average of just under one prime minister per year for the past 15 years in Nepal, neither China nor India seems to be able to pull geopolitical strings in the country for a sustained period.

The rollercoaster fate of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact further emphasizes this point. The MCC agreement provides $500 million in U.S. grants to support programs to improve electricity and transportation in Nepal. And while the previous Nepali Congress-led government got MCC ratification over the line, it was only after months of protests against the MCC that were fuelled largely by misformation. Now that the MCC is ratified, high-level U.S. officials have been visiting Nepal in quick succession .

While Prachanda’s political victory was welcomed by media outlets in Beijing, given the diverse political ideologies among the coalition, foreign powers near and far will likely struggle to identify true power brokers and influence national politics. On the other hand, this diplomatic uncertainty also makes it harder to build long-term sustained international relations.

Disinformation Continues to Fuel Conflict

In addition to Nepal’s political instability and diplomatic balancing act, social media has been rife with false information on various issues over the past few years, most notably the MCC. Disinformation around the MCC stoked concerns around Nepal’s sovereignty and fuelled several protests in Nepal in 2022.

The elections saw an uptick in this misinformation and disinformation, with doctored images, forged documents and false claims regarding various political leaders, as well as the former U.S. ambassador to Nepal, circulating over social media. This only served to stoke further allegations of U.S. interference in Nepal’s politics. Should this narrative be allowed to continue, it has the potential to fuel further anti-American sentiment in Nepal.

As political parties, politicians and allegedly foreign actors continue to utilize social media to control or twist narratives, senior journalists fear that the worst is yet to come for Nepal in terms of organized disinformation campaigns. In a country where political dissatisfaction has been simmering for decades, and with the government preoccupied with smoothing over the differences in the coalition, such campaigns could trigger political unrest and violence.

The Lack of Women on the Ballot

Nepal’s parliamentary electoral system is split: Voters are asked to choose from a list of candidates  for their district’s parliamentary seat as well as for a political party in the country’s proportional representation (PR) system. 165 members of parliament are directly elected to parliament, while the remaining 110 seats are filled based on parties’ vote share in PR list results.

Out of the 4,611 candidates who directly contested seats in the federal parliament, only 225 (9.3 percent) were women. Of this number, only 25 were fielded by the main political parties. The lack of female candidates on the ballot resulted in only nine being directly elected in the country’s first-past-the-post system — only three more than in 2017.

To meet the constitutionally mandated one-third female representation rule, political parties fielded more female candidates under the PR list system. The PR list system was meant to provide electoral opportunities to women and candidates from marginalized and indigenous communities — but members of parliament can only serve one term through the PR list. The intent was to give these underrepresented groups a chance to build experience, after which they could contest a directly elected seat.

Instead, Nepal’s major political parties have repeatedly taken the easy option of nominating new female candidates to the PR list system to ensure they meet the one-third quota rather than nominate experienced women for directly elected seats.

While the parties are fulfilling the constitutional obligations by meeting the quota, there seems to be little long-term investment in developing women leaders. Going forward, the parties need to do more to increase female and marginalized community representation and promote a more representative and inclusive parliament that reflects the spirit of the constitution — not one dominated by the same figures who wish to maintain the status quo. 

Where Does Nepal Go from Here?

The past two decades have yielded significant transitions for Nepal: a peaceful resolution to the decade-long Maoist conflict, as well as the end of monarchy and the promulgation of a new constitution that upheld secularism, inclusion and federalism.

But this positive momentum seems to now be staggering, with the same actors from several decades ago largely interested in maintaining a status quo while inflation steadily rises and federalism struggles.

While political forecasting in Nepal continues to be as accurate as reading tea leaves, there continues to be concerns about prolonged political instability — as can be seen by the fragility of the current coalition, which is already in danger of collapsing with the withdrawal of RSP, the third largest coalition partner.

Throw in the upcoming and contentious question of which party gets to nominate the president, and the Nepali people are once again left to witness blatant politicking at the expense of timely attention to economic and governance challenges.

Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry has warned that funding to provincial and local governments could be cut as a result of economic concerns. The entire federal system will be undermined if governments cannot deliver on services and development. Federalism was envisaged as a vehicle for economic development and if it flounders, it could have an impact on Nepal’s graduation to a lower middle-income country in 2026 based on the World Bank’s projections .

Still, the U.S. government sees Nepal as one of two places in Asia with an excellent opportunity for inclusion in the Partnership for Democratic Development. And with high-profile visits from U.S. government officials and scheduled high-profile visits from European governments on the way, there is an opportunity for the international community to urge Nepal’s government to stop politicking and start governing so that Nepal can flourish as a truly democratic nation that respects the rights of the many and not the few.     

Deborah Healy is the senior country director for Nepal at the National Democratic Institute.

Sneha Moktan is the program director for Asia-Pacific at the National Democratic Institute.

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The Power and Politics in Nepal (An interpretive/anthropological study on the interplay of power between Gods, King and People)

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As Nepal lies between Indian and Tibetan culture, the religious culture of Nepal comprises of three major components: a clear Tibetan component in the Himalayas, a rather modern Indian component in the plains, and a tribal animistic shamanistic component in the mid-hills well mingled with the mediaeval Indian or Tibetan component. Finally the syncretic component in the Kathmandu Valley could be regarded as the fourth; here Mahayana Buddhism harmonises with the archaic as well as mediaeval forms of Hinduism. In fact, Nepalese religious culture is characterised by an ongoing mutual interaction of Hinduism, Buddhism, animism and shamanism. Such an interaction is diversely affected by an introduction of a new component or shift in the state policy caused by political change. Here I elaborate this phenomenon briefly, with a focus on Hindu-Buddhist relation.

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