• What do we know about their consistent personality characteristics?
• Is there a family psychiatric history?
• Are there toxic exposures in utero, birth complications, or ?
• Is there a history of concussions or ?
• Neurodevelopmental history
Sample formulation for jane doe.
Biological | Psychological | Social | |
---|---|---|---|
• • History of • Fearful/anxious at birth | Step 4 | Step 3 | |
• Increase in in the last 3 months | Step 5 | • Recently fired from job | |
• Current dose of sertraline is subtherapeutic • Ongoing alcohol use | Step 6 | • Ongoing discord in her romantic relationship • Ongoing financial difficulties | |
• Medically healthy | Step 7 | • Good interpersonal support from her best friend who brought her to hospital • Has a psychiatrist that she sees every month |
Now that you've filled in the easy parts from the history, the hardest part is conceptualizing the predisposing social factors (Step 3), and all of the psychological factors (Steps 4, 5, 6, 7). This is where you'll need to be creative and also think more in-depth about your patient. Ideally, each step should flow logically and intuitively into the next based on your framework, as you'll see in our case of Jane Doe. Having a framework for understanding of different psychological treatments and psychological theories can be helpful in making your psychological formulation flow intuitively (e.g. - attachment theory , cognitive behavioural therapy , dialectical behavioural therapy , interpersonal therapy , psychodynamic therapy ). However, this can be done intuitively even without an in-depth understanding of these frameworks (we don't need to be Freud to do this). The more cases you go through (and more of the sample formulations below) the more comfortable you will be with formulating!
Jane doe's formulation.
Step | Factor | Description |
---|---|---|
Step 3 | Social (Predisposing) | . History of invalidation and lack of acknowledgement by parents |
Step 4 | Psychological (Predisposing) | (Led to) which developed early in childhood |
Step 5 | Psychological (Precipitating) | Re-experienced these feelings of abandonment after being fired from work |
Step 6 | Psychological (Perpetuating) | Lack of adaptive coping mechanisms resulted in using self-harm to cope and avoid further emotional dysregulation. Additionally, the lack of coping mechanisms leading to intense thoughts of suicide. |
Step 7 | Psychological (Protective) | Previously responded well to , and has a history of being psychologically-minded and insightful. University educated. |
Completed formulation of jane doe.
Biological | Psychological | Social | |
---|---|---|---|
• Family history of mental disorders and substance use • History of concussions • Fearful/anxious temperament at birth | • Fears of abandonment which developed early in childhood • History of invalidation and lack of acknowledgement by parents | • Early parental divorce, unstable home life, history of trauma | |
• Increase in alcohol use in the last 3 months | • Re-experienced these feelings of invalidation and abandonment after being fired from work | • Recently fired from job | |
• Current dose of sertraline is subtherapeutic • Ongoing alcohol use | • Her lack of adaptive coping mechanisms resulted in using self-harm to cope • Additionally, the lack of coping mechanisms leading to intense thoughts of suicide | • Ongoing discord in her romantic relationship • Ongoing financial difficulties | |
• Medically healthy | • Previously responded well to DBT • History of being psychologically-minded and insightful • University educated | • Good interpersonal support from her best friend who brought her to hospital. • Has a psychiatrist that she sees every month |
You've got your table all filled out now. Now what? How do you present all this information and data? Remember there is no “right” or “wrong” way to present your formulation. But the most important thing about formulation is that it should be intuitive and flow logically. Some different presentation styles are suggested here.
The “4 Ps” formulation table can be a very rigid and systematized way of presenting a formulation. At its most basic, you could present each box sequentially and describe each factor. Most learners will use this method as it is the most “simple.” It is usually presented as Predisposing → Precipitating → Perpetuating → Protective factors. As you get better and more expert at formulating, you may not need to use this rigid structured format, and instead, will be able to present a more intuitive and organic formulation of the patient instead (see other methods below).
The narrative formulation of the patient is a less rigid presentation structure where you may not choose to present everything in the 4 Ps table, and instead focus on the key factors that you think are relevant:
A much more advanced and nuanced presentation might be using a more comprehensive formulation that integrates the 4Ps formulation through multiple lenses (e.g. - Eriksonian developmental stages , psychodynamic defenses , and dialectical behavioural ):
Yet another way to present a formulation is in chronological order, starting from birth until present time:
Having certain common phrases to use can be helpful to structure your presentation. Here are some examples:
A good formulation should be integrative, and let you understand how all of the patient's factors interact to lead to the current situation. This gives you a sense of their current level of functioning, prognosis, and guides your direction for treatment and management decisions.
A good biopsychosocial formulation allows you to come up with a comprehensive and holistic treatment plan for your patient. Here is an example of a set of treatment recommendations for Jane Doe:
For good measure, here is another sample formulation for someone with a diagnosis of schizophrenia . Note that in this example, since the precipitating cause for acute psychosis (also applies to manic episodes ) is more “biological,” it may be harder to identify underlying psychological factors (but that's OK too – even the most “biological” psychiatric disorders can often be precipitated by psychosocial stressors). Again let's fill out the easiest parts of the table first:
Biological | Psychological | Social | |
---|---|---|---|
• Family history of and schizophrenia | ? (Step 4) | ? (Step 3) | |
• History of use at early age | ? (Step 5) | • Social isolation and withdrawn from family members | |
• Discontinuation of • Ongoing cannabis use and , reducing the effectiveness of medications, and also exacerbating risk of psychosis | ? (Step 6) | • Ongoing social isolation due to psychosis causing him to be fearful of others | |
• Medically healthy • Previously responded to antipsychotic medications • No history of developmental delay or head injuries | ? (Step 7) | • Followed by an early intervention in psychosis team • Supported by girlfriend and several close friends • University educated |
Now here is one potential example of a predisposing social and psychological formulation of psychosis (again, there are no right or wrong ways to formulate, it depends on the patient you have in front of you!)
Step | Factor | Description |
---|---|---|
Step 3 | Social (Predisposing) | • History of immigration (increases risk for psychosis) • Absent father, abusive mother, unstable home life |
Step 4 | Psychological (Predisposing) | Long-standing feelings of isolation and insecurity since childhood |
Step 5 | Psychological (Precipitating) | Joined a gang, entering a stressful lifestyle, led to increased hyper-vigilance and paranoia in the past few months |
Step 6 | Psychological (Perpetuating) | • Ongoing delusions leading patient become suspicious of healthcare workers/family • Psychosis leading to poor insight, and inability to reality test. He is unable to understand that persecutory delusions are a function of his psychosis. |
Step 7 | Psychological (Protective) | • Previously responded well to CBT for psychosis • Psychologically-minded and insightful when well |
Here's what the completed table would look like with the psychological factors incorporated.
Biological | Psychological | Social | |
---|---|---|---|
• Family history of psychosis and schizophrenia | |||
• History of cannabis use at early age | • Social isolation and withdrawn from family members | ||
• Discontinuation of antipsychotics • Ongoing cannabis use and smoking, reducing the effectiveness of medications, and also exacerbating risk of psychosis | • Ongoing social isolation due to psychosis causing him to be fearful of others | ||
• Medically healthy • Previously responded to antipsychotic medications • No history of developmental delay or head injuries | • Followed by an early intervention in psychosis team • Supported by girlfriend and several close friends • University educated |
As you do more formulation, you will notice that patients tend to present in “templates,” that is, certain diagnoses tend to follow a certain common theme of predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors. The more you formulate, it can be helpful to have a rough template of different formulations for different diagnoses (e.g. - depression, self-harm, mania/psychosis, anxiety, etc.) It will make your job of formulating much easier.
The following readings below are excellent resources to further develop your formulation skills:
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Durga prasanna misra.
1 Department of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India.
2 Departments of Rheumatology and Research and Development, Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust (Teaching Trust of the University of Birmingham, UK), Russells Hall Hospital, Dudley, UK.
3 Department of Internal Medicine #2, Danylo Halytsky Lviv National Medical University, Lviv, Ukraine.
4 Department of Biology and Biochemistry, South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent, Kazakhstan.
George d. kitas.
5 Centre for Epidemiology versus Arthritis, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Generating a testable working hypothesis is the first step towards conducting original research. Such research may prove or disprove the proposed hypothesis. Case reports, case series, online surveys and other observational studies, clinical trials, and narrative reviews help to generate hypotheses. Observational and interventional studies help to test hypotheses. A good hypothesis is usually based on previous evidence-based reports. Hypotheses without evidence-based justification and a priori ideas are not received favourably by the scientific community. Original research to test a hypothesis should be carefully planned to ensure appropriate methodology and adequate statistical power. While hypotheses can challenge conventional thinking and may be controversial, they should not be destructive. A hypothesis should be tested by ethically sound experiments with meaningful ethical and clinical implications. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has brought into sharp focus numerous hypotheses, some of which were proven (e.g. effectiveness of corticosteroids in those with hypoxia) while others were disproven (e.g. ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin).
Science is the systematized description of natural truths and facts. Routine observations of existing life phenomena lead to the creative thinking and generation of ideas about mechanisms of such phenomena and related human interventions. Such ideas presented in a structured format can be viewed as hypotheses. After generating a hypothesis, it is necessary to test it to prove its validity. Thus, hypothesis can be defined as a proposed mechanism of a naturally occurring event or a proposed outcome of an intervention. 1 , 2
Hypothesis testing requires choosing the most appropriate methodology and adequately powering statistically the study to be able to “prove” or “disprove” it within predetermined and widely accepted levels of certainty. This entails sample size calculation that often takes into account previously published observations and pilot studies. 2 , 3 In the era of digitization, hypothesis generation and testing may benefit from the availability of numerous platforms for data dissemination, social networking, and expert validation. Related expert evaluations may reveal strengths and limitations of proposed ideas at early stages of post-publication promotion, preventing the implementation of unsupported controversial points. 4
Thus, hypothesis generation is an important initial step in the research workflow, reflecting accumulating evidence and experts' stance. In this article, we overview the genesis and importance of scientific hypotheses and their relevance in the era of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
Broadly, research can be categorized as primary or secondary. In the context of medicine, primary research may include real-life observations of disease presentations and outcomes. Single case descriptions, which often lead to new ideas and hypotheses, serve as important starting points or justifications for case series and cohort studies. The importance of case descriptions is particularly evident in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic when unique, educational case reports have heralded a new era in clinical medicine. 5
Case series serve similar purpose to single case reports, but are based on a slightly larger quantum of information. Observational studies, including online surveys, describe the existing phenomena at a larger scale, often involving various control groups. Observational studies include variable-scale epidemiological investigations at different time points. Interventional studies detail the results of therapeutic interventions.
Secondary research is based on already published literature and does not directly involve human or animal subjects. Review articles are generated by secondary research. These could be systematic reviews which follow methods akin to primary research but with the unit of study being published papers rather than humans or animals. Systematic reviews have a rigid structure with a mandatory search strategy encompassing multiple databases, systematic screening of search results against pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria, critical appraisal of study quality and an optional component of collating results across studies quantitatively to derive summary estimates (meta-analysis). 6 Narrative reviews, on the other hand, have a more flexible structure. Systematic literature searches to minimise bias in selection of articles are highly recommended but not mandatory. 7 Narrative reviews are influenced by the authors' viewpoint who may preferentially analyse selected sets of articles. 8
In relation to primary research, case studies and case series are generally not driven by a working hypothesis. Rather, they serve as a basis to generate a hypothesis. Observational or interventional studies should have a hypothesis for choosing research design and sample size. The results of observational and interventional studies further lead to the generation of new hypotheses, testing of which forms the basis of future studies. Review articles, on the other hand, may not be hypothesis-driven, but form fertile ground to generate future hypotheses for evaluation. Fig. 1 summarizes which type of studies are hypothesis-driven and which lead on to hypothesis generation.
A review of the published literature did not enable the identification of clearly defined standards for working and scientific hypotheses. It is essential to distinguish influential versus not influential hypotheses, evidence-based hypotheses versus a priori statements and ideas, ethical versus unethical, or potentially harmful ideas. The following points are proposed for consideration while generating working and scientific hypotheses. 1 , 2 Table 1 summarizes these points.
Points to be considered while evaluating the validity of hypotheses |
---|
Backed by evidence-based data |
Testable by relevant study designs |
Supported by preliminary (pilot) studies |
Testable by ethical studies |
Maintaining a balance between scientific temper and controversy |
A scientific hypothesis should have a sound basis on previously published literature as well as the scientist's observations. Randomly generated (a priori) hypotheses are unlikely to be proven. A thorough literature search should form the basis of a hypothesis based on published evidence. 7
Unless a scientific hypothesis can be tested, it can neither be proven nor be disproven. Therefore, a scientific hypothesis should be amenable to testing with the available technologies and the present understanding of science.
If a hypothesis is based purely on a novel observation by the scientist in question, it should be grounded on some preliminary studies to support it. For example, if a drug that targets a specific cell population is hypothesized to be useful in a particular disease setting, then there must be some preliminary evidence that the specific cell population plays a role in driving that disease process.
The hypothesis should be testable by experiments that are ethically acceptable. 9 For example, a hypothesis that parachutes reduce mortality from falls from an airplane cannot be tested using a randomized controlled trial. 10 This is because it is obvious that all those jumping from a flying plane without a parachute would likely die. Similarly, the hypothesis that smoking tobacco causes lung cancer cannot be tested by a clinical trial that makes people take up smoking (since there is considerable evidence for the health hazards associated with smoking). Instead, long-term observational studies comparing outcomes in those who smoke and those who do not, as was performed in the landmark epidemiological case control study by Doll and Hill, 11 are more ethical and practical.
Novel findings, including novel hypotheses, particularly those that challenge established norms, are bound to face resistance for their wider acceptance. Such resistance is inevitable until the time such findings are proven with appropriate scientific rigor. However, hypotheses that generate controversy are generally unwelcome. For example, at the time the pandemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and AIDS was taking foot, there were numerous deniers that refused to believe that HIV caused AIDS. 12 , 13 Similarly, at a time when climate change is causing catastrophic changes to weather patterns worldwide, denial that climate change is occurring and consequent attempts to block climate change are certainly unwelcome. 14 The denialism and misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic, including unfortunate examples of vaccine hesitancy, are more recent examples of controversial hypotheses not backed by science. 15 , 16 An example of a controversial hypothesis that was a revolutionary scientific breakthrough was the hypothesis put forth by Warren and Marshall that Helicobacter pylori causes peptic ulcers. Initially, the hypothesis that a microorganism could cause gastritis and gastric ulcers faced immense resistance. When the scientists that proposed the hypothesis themselves ingested H. pylori to induce gastritis in themselves, only then could they convince the wider world about their hypothesis. Such was the impact of the hypothesis was that Barry Marshall and Robin Warren were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2005 for this discovery. 17 , 18
Influential hypotheses are those that have stood the test of time. An archetype of an influential hypothesis is that proposed by Edward Jenner in the eighteenth century that cowpox infection protects against smallpox. While this observation had been reported for nearly a century before this time, it had not been suitably tested and publicised until Jenner conducted his experiments on a young boy by demonstrating protection against smallpox after inoculation with cowpox. 19 These experiments were the basis for widespread smallpox immunization strategies worldwide in the 20th century which resulted in the elimination of smallpox as a human disease today. 20
Other influential hypotheses are those which have been read and cited widely. An example of this is the hygiene hypothesis proposing an inverse relationship between infections in early life and allergies or autoimmunity in adulthood. An analysis reported that this hypothesis had been cited more than 3,000 times on Scopus. 1
The COVID-19 pandemic devastated the world like no other in recent memory. During this period, various hypotheses emerged, understandably so considering the public health emergency situation with innumerable deaths and suffering for humanity. Within weeks of the first reports of COVID-19, aberrant immune system activation was identified as a key driver of organ dysfunction and mortality in this disease. 21 Consequently, numerous drugs that suppress the immune system or abrogate the activation of the immune system were hypothesized to have a role in COVID-19. 22 One of the earliest drugs hypothesized to have a benefit was hydroxychloroquine. Hydroxychloroquine was proposed to interfere with Toll-like receptor activation and consequently ameliorate the aberrant immune system activation leading to pathology in COVID-19. 22 The drug was also hypothesized to have a prophylactic role in preventing infection or disease severity in COVID-19. It was also touted as a wonder drug for the disease by many prominent international figures. However, later studies which were well-designed randomized controlled trials failed to demonstrate any benefit of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19. 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 Subsequently, azithromycin 27 , 28 and ivermectin 29 were hypothesized as potential therapies for COVID-19, but were not supported by evidence from randomized controlled trials. The role of vitamin D in preventing disease severity was also proposed, but has not been proven definitively until now. 30 , 31 On the other hand, randomized controlled trials identified the evidence supporting dexamethasone 32 and interleukin-6 pathway blockade with tocilizumab as effective therapies for COVID-19 in specific situations such as at the onset of hypoxia. 33 , 34 Clues towards the apparent effectiveness of various drugs against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in vitro but their ineffectiveness in vivo have recently been identified. Many of these drugs are weak, lipophilic bases and some others induce phospholipidosis which results in apparent in vitro effectiveness due to non-specific off-target effects that are not replicated inside living systems. 35 , 36
Another hypothesis proposed was the association of the routine policy of vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) with lower deaths due to COVID-19. This hypothesis emerged in the middle of 2020 when COVID-19 was still taking foot in many parts of the world. 37 , 38 Subsequently, many countries which had lower deaths at that time point went on to have higher numbers of mortality, comparable to other areas of the world. Furthermore, the hypothesis that BCG vaccination reduced COVID-19 mortality was a classic example of ecological fallacy. Associations between population level events (ecological studies; in this case, BCG vaccination and COVID-19 mortality) cannot be directly extrapolated to the individual level. Furthermore, such associations cannot per se be attributed as causal in nature, and can only serve to generate hypotheses that need to be tested at the individual level. 39
Traditionally, publication after peer review has been considered the gold standard before any new idea finds acceptability amongst the scientific community. Getting a work (including a working or scientific hypothesis) reviewed by experts in the field before experiments are conducted to prove or disprove it helps to refine the idea further as well as improve the experiments planned to test the hypothesis. 40 A route towards this has been the emergence of journals dedicated to publishing hypotheses such as the Central Asian Journal of Medical Hypotheses and Ethics. 41 Another means of publishing hypotheses is through registered research protocols detailing the background, hypothesis, and methodology of a particular study. If such protocols are published after peer review, then the journal commits to publishing the completed study irrespective of whether the study hypothesis is proven or disproven. 42 In the post-pandemic world, online research methods such as online surveys powered via social media channels such as Twitter and Instagram might serve as critical tools to generate as well as to preliminarily test the appropriateness of hypotheses for further evaluation. 43 , 44
Some radical hypotheses might be difficult to publish after traditional peer review. These hypotheses might only be acceptable by the scientific community after they are tested in research studies. Preprints might be a way to disseminate such controversial and ground-breaking hypotheses. 45 However, scientists might prefer to keep their hypotheses confidential for the fear of plagiarism of ideas, avoiding online posting and publishing until they have tested the hypotheses.
Publication of hypotheses is important, however, a balance is required between scientific temper and controversy. Journal editors and reviewers might keep in mind these specific points, summarized in Table 2 and detailed hereafter, while judging the merit of hypotheses for publication. Keeping in mind the ethical principle of primum non nocere, a hypothesis should be published only if it is testable in a manner that is ethically appropriate. 46 Such hypotheses should be grounded in reality and lend themselves to further testing to either prove or disprove them. It must be considered that subsequent experiments to prove or disprove a hypothesis have an equal chance of failing or succeeding, akin to tossing a coin. A pre-conceived belief that a hypothesis is unlikely to be proven correct should not form the basis of rejection of such a hypothesis for publication. In this context, hypotheses generated after a thorough literature search to identify knowledge gaps or based on concrete clinical observations on a considerable number of patients (as opposed to random observations on a few patients) are more likely to be acceptable for publication by peer-reviewed journals. Also, hypotheses should be considered for publication or rejection based on their implications for science at large rather than whether the subsequent experiments to test them end up with results in favour of or against the original hypothesis.
Points to be considered before a hypothesis is acceptable for publication |
---|
Experiments required to test hypotheses should be ethically acceptable as per the World Medical Association declaration on ethics and related statements |
Pilot studies support hypotheses |
Single clinical observations and expert opinion surveys may support hypotheses |
Testing hypotheses requires robust methodology and statistical power |
Hypotheses that challenge established views and concepts require proper evidence-based justification |
Hypotheses form an important part of the scientific literature. The COVID-19 pandemic has reiterated the importance and relevance of hypotheses for dealing with public health emergencies and highlighted the need for evidence-based and ethical hypotheses. A good hypothesis is testable in a relevant study design, backed by preliminary evidence, and has positive ethical and clinical implications. General medical journals might consider publishing hypotheses as a specific article type to enable more rapid advancement of science.
Disclosure: The authors have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.
Author Contributions:
The hypothesis is one of the most important steps of psychological research. Hypothesis refers to an assumption or the temporary statement made by the researcher before the execution of the experiment, regarding the possible outcome of that experiment. A hypothesis can be tested through various scientific and statistical tools. It is a logical guess based on previous knowledge and investigations related to the problem under investigation. In this article, we’ll learn about the significance of the hypothesis, the sources of the hypothesis, and the various examples of the hypothesis.
The formulation of a good hypothesis is not an easy task. One needs to take care of the various crucial steps to get an accurate hypothesis. The hypothesis formulation demands both the creativity of the researcher and his/her years of experience. The researcher needs to use critical thinking to avoid committing any errors such as choosing the wrong hypothesis. Although the hypothesis is considered the first step before further investigations such as data collection for the experiment, the hypothesis formulation also requires some amount of data collection. The data collection for the hypothesis formulation refers to the review of literature related to the concerned topic, and understanding of the previous research on the related topic. Following are some of the main sources of the hypothesis that may help the researcher to formulate a good hypothesis.
1. null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis examples.
Every research problem-solving procedure begins with the formulation of the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis assumes the existence of the relationship between the variables under study, while the null hypothesis denies the relationship between the variables under study. Following are examples of the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis based on the research problem.
Research Problem: What is the benefit of eating an apple daily on your health?
Alternative Hypothesis: Eating an apple daily reduces the chances of visiting the doctor.
Null Hypothesis : Eating an apple daily does not impact the frequency of visiting the doctor.
Research Problem: What is the impact of spending a lot of time on mobiles on the attention span of teenagers.
Alternative Problem: Spending time on the mobiles and attention span have a negative correlation.
Null Hypothesis: There does not exist any correlation between the use of mobile by teenagers on their attention span.
Research Problem: What is the impact of providing flexible working hours to the employees on the job satisfaction level.
Alternative Hypothesis : Employees who get the option of flexible working hours have better job satisfaction than the employees who don’t get the option of flexible working hours.
Null Hypothesis: There is no association between providing flexible working hours and job satisfaction.
The hypothesis that includes only one independent variable (predictor variable) and one dependent variable (outcome variable) is termed the simple hypothesis. For example, the children are more likely to get clinical depression if their parents had also suffered from the clinical depression. Here, the independent variable is the parents suffering from clinical depression and the dependent or the outcome variable is the clinical depression observed in their child/children. Other examples of the simple hypothesis are given below,
If the hypothesis includes more than one independent (predictor variable) or more than one dependent variable (outcome variable) it is known as the complex hypothesis. For example, clinical depression in children is associated with a family clinical depression history and a stressful and hectic lifestyle. In this case, there are two independent variables, i.e., family history of clinical depression and hectic and stressful lifestyle, and one dependent variable, i.e., clinical depression. Following are some more examples of the complex hypothesis,
If there are not many pieces of evidence and studies related to the concerned problem, then the researcher can take the help of the general logic to formulate the hypothesis. The logical hypothesis is proved true through various logic. For example, if the researcher wants to prove that the animal needs water for its survival, then this can be logically verified through the logic that ‘living beings can not survive without the water.’ Following are some more examples of logical hypotheses,
The empirical hypothesis comes into existence when the statement is being tested by conducting various experiments. This hypothesis is not just an idea or notion, instead, it refers to the statement that undergoes various trials and errors, and various extraneous variables can impact the result. The trials and errors provide a set of results that can be testable over time. Following are the examples of the empirical hypothesis,
The statements that can be proven true by using the various statistical tools are considered the statistical hypothesis. The researcher uses statistical data about an area or the group in the analysis of the statistical hypothesis. For example, if you study the IQ level of the women belonging to nation X, it would be practically impossible to measure the IQ level of each woman belonging to nation X. Here, statistical methods come to the rescue. The researcher can choose the sample population, i.e., women belonging to the different states or provinces of the nation X, and conduct the statistical tests on this sample population to get the average IQ of the women belonging to the nation X. Following are the examples of the statistical hypothesis.
A hypothesis is very crucial in experimental research as it aims to predict any particular outcome of the experiment. Hypothesis plays an important role in guiding the researchers to focus on the concerned area of research only. However, the hypothesis is not required by all researchers. The type of research that seeks for finding facts, i.e., historical research, does not need the formulation of the hypothesis. In the historical research, the researchers look for the pieces of evidence related to the human life, the history of a particular area, or the occurrence of any event, this means that the researcher does not have a strong basis to make an assumption in these types of researches, hence hypothesis is not needed in this case. As stated by Hillway (1964)
When fact-finding alone is the aim of the study, a hypothesis is not required.”
The hypothesis may not be an important part of the descriptive or historical studies, but it is a crucial part for the experimental researchers. Following are some of the points that show the importance of formulating a hypothesis before conducting the experiment.
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To understand and explain our experiences, and to plan services, we need to do a little more than simply make a list of those problems. This means developing co-produced ‘formulations’. It is via these formulations that we can recognise the fact that psychosocial factors such as poverty, unemployment and trauma are the most well-established causes of psychological distress. It is, equally through such multidisciplinary formulations that we can acknowledge how other factors—for example, genetic and developmental—may influence the way in which each of us reacts to challenges. And it should be these formulations that form the basis for intervention.
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Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
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Kinderman, P. (2019). Formulation and the Scientific Method. In: A Manifesto for Mental Health. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24386-9_8
DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-24386-9_8
Published : 23 September 2019
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What it is and how it's used in sociology
A hypothesis is a prediction of what will be found at the outcome of a research project and is typically focused on the relationship between two different variables studied in the research. It is usually based on both theoretical expectations about how things work and already existing scientific evidence.
Within social science, a hypothesis can take two forms. It can predict that there is no relationship between two variables, in which case it is a null hypothesis . Or, it can predict the existence of a relationship between variables, which is known as an alternative hypothesis.
In either case, the variable that is thought to either affect or not affect the outcome is known as the independent variable, and the variable that is thought to either be affected or not is the dependent variable.
Researchers seek to determine whether or not their hypothesis, or hypotheses if they have more than one, will prove true. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they do not. Either way, the research is considered successful if one can conclude whether or not a hypothesis is true.
A researcher has a null hypothesis when she or he believes, based on theory and existing scientific evidence, that there will not be a relationship between two variables. For example, when examining what factors influence a person's highest level of education within the U.S., a researcher might expect that place of birth, number of siblings, and religion would not have an impact on the level of education. This would mean the researcher has stated three null hypotheses.
Taking the same example, a researcher might expect that the economic class and educational attainment of one's parents, and the race of the person in question are likely to have an effect on one's educational attainment. Existing evidence and social theories that recognize the connections between wealth and cultural resources , and how race affects access to rights and resources in the U.S. , would suggest that both economic class and educational attainment of the one's parents would have a positive effect on educational attainment. In this case, economic class and educational attainment of one's parents are independent variables, and one's educational attainment is the dependent variable—it is hypothesized to be dependent on the other two.
Conversely, an informed researcher would expect that being a race other than white in the U.S. is likely to have a negative impact on a person's educational attainment. This would be characterized as a negative relationship, wherein being a person of color has a negative effect on one's educational attainment. In reality, this hypothesis proves true, with the exception of Asian Americans , who go to college at a higher rate than whites do. However, Blacks and Hispanics and Latinos are far less likely than whites and Asian Americans to go to college.
Formulating a hypothesis can take place at the very beginning of a research project , or after a bit of research has already been done. Sometimes a researcher knows right from the start which variables she is interested in studying, and she may already have a hunch about their relationships. Other times, a researcher may have an interest in a particular topic, trend, or phenomenon, but he may not know enough about it to identify variables or formulate a hypothesis.
Whenever a hypothesis is formulated, the most important thing is to be precise about what one's variables are, what the nature of the relationship between them might be, and how one can go about conducting a study of them.
Updated by Nicki Lisa Cole, Ph.D
COMMENTS
The hypothesis is a predictive, testable statement predicting the outcome and the results the researcher expects to find. The hypothesis provides a summary of what direction, if any, is taken to investigate a theory. In scientific research, there is a criterion that hypotheses need to be met to be regarded as acceptable.
Examples. A research hypothesis, in its plural form "hypotheses," is a specific, testable prediction about the anticipated results of a study, established at its outset. It is a key component of the scientific method. Hypotheses connect theory to data and guide the research process towards expanding scientific understanding.
A hypothesis is a tentative statement about the relationship between two or more variables. It is a specific, testable prediction about what you expect to happen in a study. It is a preliminary answer to your question that helps guide the research process. Consider a study designed to examine the relationship between sleep deprivation and test ...
In contemporary research, hypothesis formulation continues to play a crucial role. For instance, in the field of psychology, researchers often develop hypotheses to understand human behavior. A recent study on the effects of social media on mental health formulated the hypothesis that increased social media use leads to higher levels of anxiety ...
The specific group being studied. The predicted outcome of the experiment or analysis. 5. Phrase your hypothesis in three ways. To identify the variables, you can write a simple prediction in if…then form. The first part of the sentence states the independent variable and the second part states the dependent variable.
A hypothesis, on the other hand, is a specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate. It is an explanation that relies on just a few key concepts. ... As Figure 2.2 shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook ...
As Figure 2.3 shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of "theoretically motivated" or "theory-driven" research. ... the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than ...
The first is to raise a research question, answer that question by conducting a new study, and then offer one or more theories (usually more) to explain or interpret the results. This format works well for applied research questions and for research questions that existing theories do not address. The second way is to describe one or more ...
A researcher begins with a set of phenomena and either constructs a theory to explain or interpret them or chooses an existing theory to work with. He or she then makes a prediction about some new phenomenon that should be observed if the theory is correct. Again, this prediction is called a hypothesis.
TEAM FORMULATION: •'Formulation', first appeared in clinical psychology publications in the 1950's (Crellin, 1998). However, no single definition of 'formulation' currently exists. •It is now widely used by many other mental health practitioners including, nurses, applied psychologist, psychotherapists and psychiatrists. •A recent development is to use 'formulation in teams ...
Psychology: In psychology, hypotheses are used to test theories and models of human behavior and cognition. For example, a hypothesis might be formulated to test the effects of a particular stimulus on the brain or behavior. ... The formulation of a hypothesis is based on existing knowledge, observations, and theories, and it should be specific ...
Search. The scientific method is a process that includes several steps: First, an observation or question arises about a phenomenon. Then a hypothesis is formulated to explain the phenomenon, which is used to make predictions about other related occurrences or to predict the results of new observations quantitatively.
The Biopsychosocial Model and Case Formulation (also known as the Biopsychosocial Formulation) in psychiatry is a way of understanding a patient as more than a diagnostic label.Hypotheses are generated about the origins and causes of a patient's symptoms. The most common and clinically practical way to formulate is through the biopsychosocial approach, first described in 1980 by George Engel.
Formulating Hypotheses for Different Study Designs. Generating a testable working hypothesis is the first step towards conducting original research. Such research may prove or disprove the proposed hypothesis. Case reports, case series, online surveys and other observational studies, clinical trials, and narrative reviews help to generate ...
Sometimes 'institution' of the well known and experienced researcher is also considered as a good source of the hypothesis formulation. Real Life Hypothesis Examples 1. Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis Examples. Every research problem-solving procedure begins with the formulation of the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.
Formulation includes: a summary of the client's core problems, hypotheses, developed on the basis of psychological theory, that account for the development and maintenance of the client's difficulties, therefore, suggestions as to how the client's difficulties may relate to one another, and a consequent plan of intervention.
A hypothesis is a prediction of what will be found at the outcome of a research project and is typically focused on the relationship between two different variables studied in the research. It is usually based on both theoretical expectations about how things work and already existing scientific evidence. Within social science, a hypothesis can ...
In the fascinating realm of psychology, the formulation of hypotheses is a pivotal step that unlocks the door to understanding the human mind and behavior. In this comprehensive guide, we will delve deep into the world of hypotheses, from their definition and types to the steps involved in crafting a hypothesis in psychology.
To formulate a hypothesis, a researcher must consider the requirements of a strong hypothesis: Make a prediction based on previous observations or research. Define objective independent and ...
Methods in Psychology 4.3 FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESIS Science proceeds with observation, hypothesis formulation and hypothesis testing. After testing the hypothesis, through various statistical tests, researcher can accept or reject the hypothesis. If the hypothesis is accepted then researcher can replicate
As Figure 2.2 shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of "theoretically motivated" or "theory-driven" research. ... the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than ...